The market shows tight clustering around 50% implied probability across leading AI labs for third place in text-based math benchmarks by late November, reflecting rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility rather than any single frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model capabilities in mathematical reasoning, where incremental gains in chain-of-thought accuracy, multi-step problem solving, and benchmark scores on datasets like MATH or GSM8K can shift rankings quickly. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases or fine-tunes from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek or Moonshot, alongside potential results from third-party evaluations. Traders appear focused on which organization can deliver the clearest capability edge before the resolution window closes, given historical patterns of tight races in AI math performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 36%
Google 26%
OpenAI 26%
Xiaomi 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Z.ai
36%
26%
OpenAI
26%
Xiaomi
26%
Meituan
26%
Bytedance
26%
StepFun
26%
Thinky
26%
Anthropic
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Moonshot
26%
Nvidia
26%
MiniMax
26%
DeepSeek
14%
Amazon
14%
Baidu
14%
Meta
14%
Mistral
14%
Tencent
14%
Microsoft
14%
Alibaba
8%
Z.ai 36%
Google 26%
OpenAI 26%
Xiaomi 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
36%
$0 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
26%
Bytedance
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
26%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market shows tight clustering around 50% implied probability across leading AI labs for third place in text-based math benchmarks by late November, reflecting rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility rather than any single frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model capabilities in mathematical reasoning, where incremental gains in chain-of-thought accuracy, multi-step problem solving, and benchmark scores on datasets like MATH or GSM8K can shift rankings quickly. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases or fine-tunes from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek or Moonshot, alongside potential results from third-party evaluations. Traders appear focused on which organization can deliver the clearest capability edge before the resolution window closes, given historical patterns of tight races in AI math performance.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market shows tight clustering around 50% implied probability across leading AI labs for third place in text-based math benchmarks by late November, reflecting rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility rather than any single frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model capabilities in mathematical reasoning, where incremental gains in chain-of-thought accuracy, multi-step problem solving, and benchmark scores on datasets like MATH or GSM8K can shift rankings quickly. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases or fine-tunes from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek or Moonshot, alongside potential results from third-party evaluations. Traders appear focused on which organization can deliver the clearest capability edge before the resolution window closes, given historical patterns of tight races in AI math performance.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market shows tight clustering around 50% implied probability across leading AI labs for third place in text-based math benchmarks by late November, reflecting rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility rather than any single frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model capabilities in mathematical reasoning, where incremental gains in chain-of-thought accuracy, multi-step problem solving, and benchmark scores on datasets like MATH or GSM8K can shift rankings quickly. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases or fine-tunes from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek or Moonshot, alongside potential results from third-party evaluations. Traders appear focused on which organization can deliver the clearest capability edge before the resolution window closes, given historical patterns of tight races in AI math performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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