Multiple frontier labs continue releasing competitive large language models with rapid iteration on reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities, keeping trader consensus tightly contested across providers as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently lead several independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, while OpenAI’s newly shipped GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series post strong results on coding and long-context tasks. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Z.ai’s GLM deliver near-parity open-weight or cost-efficient alternatives that close historical gaps. With frequent September releases resetting leaderboards and only ten weeks until resolution, sentiment reflects uncertainty over which lab will hold the top spot by end of November amid ongoing benchmark shifts and capability demonstrations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 50%
Baidu 50%
Z.ai 50%
MiniMax 50%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
50%
Baidu
50%
Z.ai
50%
MiniMax
50%
Xiaomi
49%
Alibaba
38%
26%
Moonshot
26%
OpenAI
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Amazon
26%
ByteDance
26%
Nvidia
26%
Thinky
26%
Mistral
26%
Meituan
26%
Tencent
26%
StepFun
26%
Microsoft
26%
Anthropic
61%
Meta 50%
Baidu 50%
Z.ai 50%
MiniMax 50%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
$0 Vol.
50%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
50%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
50%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
50%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
49%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
38%
$0 Vol.
26%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
26%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
26%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Multiple frontier labs continue releasing competitive large language models with rapid iteration on reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities, keeping trader consensus tightly contested across providers as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently lead several independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, while OpenAI’s newly shipped GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series post strong results on coding and long-context tasks. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Z.ai’s GLM deliver near-parity open-weight or cost-efficient alternatives that close historical gaps. With frequent September releases resetting leaderboards and only ten weeks until resolution, sentiment reflects uncertainty over which lab will hold the top spot by end of November amid ongoing benchmark shifts and capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Multiple frontier labs continue releasing competitive large language models with rapid iteration on reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities, keeping trader consensus tightly contested across providers as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently lead several independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, while OpenAI’s newly shipped GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series post strong results on coding and long-context tasks. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Z.ai’s GLM deliver near-parity open-weight or cost-efficient alternatives that close historical gaps. With frequent September releases resetting leaderboards and only ten weeks until resolution, sentiment reflects uncertainty over which lab will hold the top spot by end of November amid ongoing benchmark shifts and capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple frontier labs continue releasing competitive large language models with rapid iteration on reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities, keeping trader consensus tightly contested across providers as of mid-September 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently lead several independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, while OpenAI’s newly shipped GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series post strong results on coding and long-context tasks. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Z.ai’s GLM deliver near-parity open-weight or cost-efficient alternatives that close historical gaps. With frequent September releases resetting leaderboards and only ten weeks until resolution, sentiment reflects uncertainty over which lab will hold the top spot by end of November amid ongoing benchmark shifts and capability demonstrations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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