Intense competition among established AI labs has produced a deadlocked market at 50% implied probability across numerous contenders for second-best status by late November. OpenAI's frontier models continue setting benchmarks, but Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta AI each demonstrate competitive large language model capabilities through recent releases and scaling improvements. Differentiating factors include demonstrated reasoning performance, enterprise adoption rates, safety alignment progress, and developer ecosystem momentum. Key swing events ahead include fall model updates, new benchmark results, and potential partnerships that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 50%
ByteDance 49%
Tencent 49%
Meituan 48%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
50%
ByteDance
49%
Tencent
49%
Meituan
48%
DeepSeek
48%
Z.ai
47%
OpenAI
36%
MiniMax
36%
26%
Alibaba
26%
Baidu
26%
Xiaomi
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Amazon
26%
Nvidia
26%
Mistral
26%
StepFun
26%
Anthropic
25%
Moonshot
25%
Thinky
25%
Microsoft
25%
Meta 50%
ByteDance 49%
Tencent 49%
Meituan 48%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
$0 Vol.
50%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
49%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
49%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
48%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
48%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
47%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
36%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
36%
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
25%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
25%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
25%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among established AI labs has produced a deadlocked market at 50% implied probability across numerous contenders for second-best status by late November. OpenAI's frontier models continue setting benchmarks, but Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta AI each demonstrate competitive large language model capabilities through recent releases and scaling improvements. Differentiating factors include demonstrated reasoning performance, enterprise adoption rates, safety alignment progress, and developer ecosystem momentum. Key swing events ahead include fall model updates, new benchmark results, and potential partnerships that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among established AI labs has produced a deadlocked market at 50% implied probability across numerous contenders for second-best status by late November. OpenAI's frontier models continue setting benchmarks, but Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta AI each demonstrate competitive large language model capabilities through recent releases and scaling improvements. Differentiating factors include demonstrated reasoning performance, enterprise adoption rates, safety alignment progress, and developer ecosystem momentum. Key swing events ahead include fall model updates, new benchmark results, and potential partnerships that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Intense competition among established AI labs has produced a deadlocked market at 50% implied probability across numerous contenders for second-best status by late November. OpenAI's frontier models continue setting benchmarks, but Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta AI each demonstrate competitive large language model capabilities through recent releases and scaling improvements. Differentiating factors include demonstrated reasoning performance, enterprise adoption rates, safety alignment progress, and developer ecosystem momentum. Key swing events ahead include fall model updates, new benchmark results, and potential partnerships that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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