Traders see evenly matched 50% implied probabilities across dozens of contenders because no single lab has established a durable lead on the Text Arena math leaderboard heading into late November. Anthropic’s latest Claude Opus and Fable variants currently top the category with Arena Elo scores above 1520, driven by strong chain-of-thought and iterative reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series leads separate math benchmarks such as FrontierMath v2 at 89%. Google Gemini, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, Alibaba’s Qwen3, and Moonshot’s Kimi models sit just behind on crowd-sourced votes, with frequent small updates and new fine-tunes expected before resolution. The outcome hinges on which company ships the most capable math-specific iteration or agentic workflow by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 26%
Google 26%
Z.ai 26%
Nvidia 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
26%
26%
Z.ai
26%
Nvidia
26%
MiniMax
26%
ByteDance
26%
Microsoft
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Meituan
26%
SpaceXAI
14%
Alibaba
14%
Baidu
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Moonshot
14%
Meta
14%
Amazon
14%
Mistral
14%
Tencent
14%
StepFun
14%
Thinky
14%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic 26%
Google 26%
Z.ai 26%
Nvidia 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
26%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see evenly matched 50% implied probabilities across dozens of contenders because no single lab has established a durable lead on the Text Arena math leaderboard heading into late November. Anthropic’s latest Claude Opus and Fable variants currently top the category with Arena Elo scores above 1520, driven by strong chain-of-thought and iterative reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series leads separate math benchmarks such as FrontierMath v2 at 89%. Google Gemini, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, Alibaba’s Qwen3, and Moonshot’s Kimi models sit just behind on crowd-sourced votes, with frequent small updates and new fine-tunes expected before resolution. The outcome hinges on which company ships the most capable math-specific iteration or agentic workflow by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see evenly matched 50% implied probabilities across dozens of contenders because no single lab has established a durable lead on the Text Arena math leaderboard heading into late November. Anthropic’s latest Claude Opus and Fable variants currently top the category with Arena Elo scores above 1520, driven by strong chain-of-thought and iterative reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series leads separate math benchmarks such as FrontierMath v2 at 89%. Google Gemini, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, Alibaba’s Qwen3, and Moonshot’s Kimi models sit just behind on crowd-sourced votes, with frequent small updates and new fine-tunes expected before resolution. The outcome hinges on which company ships the most capable math-specific iteration or agentic workflow by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see evenly matched 50% implied probabilities across dozens of contenders because no single lab has established a durable lead on the Text Arena math leaderboard heading into late November. Anthropic’s latest Claude Opus and Fable variants currently top the category with Arena Elo scores above 1520, driven by strong chain-of-thought and iterative reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series leads separate math benchmarks such as FrontierMath v2 at 89%. Google Gemini, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, Alibaba’s Qwen3, and Moonshot’s Kimi models sit just behind on crowd-sourced votes, with frequent small updates and new fine-tunes expected before resolution. The outcome hinges on which company ships the most capable math-specific iteration or agentic workflow by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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