**Multiple Chinese AI labs remain tightly matched on capability benchmarks and adoption metrics as of mid-September 2026, producing balanced 50% implied probabilities across listed contenders for second-best by end-November.** Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 release (2.8T-parameter MoE with strong coding, agentic, and multimodal results) has kept it competitive on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, while Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, DeepSeek’s V4 variants, and ByteDance’s Doubao models post comparable or superior scores on specific tasks such as SWE-Bench, long-context reasoning, and OpenRouter volume. Rapid iteration, open-weight downloads on Hugging Face, cost efficiency, and enterprise deployments continue to shift relative standings weekly, with no lab holding durable separation. Upcoming releases, earnings visibility, and any new arena.ai or SuperCLUE updates before November 30 could quickly alter trader consensus on the narrow gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 26%
Meituan 16%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
26%
Meituan
16%
Alibaba
14%
DeepSeek
14%
MiniMax
14%
StepFun
14%
Baidu
14%
ByteDance
14%
Tencent
13%
Z.ai
9%
Xiaomi
9%
Moonshot 26%
Meituan 16%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
9%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Multiple Chinese AI labs remain tightly matched on capability benchmarks and adoption metrics as of mid-September 2026, producing balanced 50% implied probabilities across listed contenders for second-best by end-November.** Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 release (2.8T-parameter MoE with strong coding, agentic, and multimodal results) has kept it competitive on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, while Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, DeepSeek’s V4 variants, and ByteDance’s Doubao models post comparable or superior scores on specific tasks such as SWE-Bench, long-context reasoning, and OpenRouter volume. Rapid iteration, open-weight downloads on Hugging Face, cost efficiency, and enterprise deployments continue to shift relative standings weekly, with no lab holding durable separation. Upcoming releases, earnings visibility, and any new arena.ai or SuperCLUE updates before November 30 could quickly alter trader consensus on the narrow gap.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Multiple Chinese AI labs remain tightly matched on capability benchmarks and adoption metrics as of mid-September 2026, producing balanced 50% implied probabilities across listed contenders for second-best by end-November.** Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 release (2.8T-parameter MoE with strong coding, agentic, and multimodal results) has kept it competitive on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, while Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, DeepSeek’s V4 variants, and ByteDance’s Doubao models post comparable or superior scores on specific tasks such as SWE-Bench, long-context reasoning, and OpenRouter volume. Rapid iteration, open-weight downloads on Hugging Face, cost efficiency, and enterprise deployments continue to shift relative standings weekly, with no lab holding durable separation. Upcoming releases, earnings visibility, and any new arena.ai or SuperCLUE updates before November 30 could quickly alter trader consensus on the narrow gap.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Multiple Chinese AI labs remain tightly matched on capability benchmarks and adoption metrics as of mid-September 2026, producing balanced 50% implied probabilities across listed contenders for second-best by end-November.** Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 release (2.8T-parameter MoE with strong coding, agentic, and multimodal results) has kept it competitive on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, while Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, DeepSeek’s V4 variants, and ByteDance’s Doubao models post comparable or superior scores on specific tasks such as SWE-Bench, long-context reasoning, and OpenRouter volume. Rapid iteration, open-weight downloads on Hugging Face, cost efficiency, and enterprise deployments continue to shift relative standings weekly, with no lab holding durable separation. Upcoming releases, earnings visibility, and any new arena.ai or SuperCLUE updates before November 30 could quickly alter trader consensus on the narrow gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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