The tightly clustered 50% implied probabilities across two dozen AI labs reflect intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena, where no single model has pulled ahead decisively through September 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered incremental gains on math-specific evaluations, but consistent leadership remains elusive due to rapid iteration cycles and varying strengths in chain-of-thought reasoning versus raw computation. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark dataset refreshes, and potential regulatory shifts affecting training compute access. Traders appear to view the November endpoint as too proximate for any lab to establish a durable edge without new capability demonstrations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 50%
Moonshot 16%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
50%
Moonshot
16%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
14%
ByteDance
14%
Mistral
14%
StepFun
14%
Alibaba
14%
Z.ai
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Tencent
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
Baidu
13%
Meta
13%
Nvidia
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Meituan
13%
Microsoft
13%
Thinky
13%
Amazon
9%
Google 50%
Moonshot 16%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
16%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
13%
Meta
$0 Vol.
13%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
13%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
13%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
13%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly clustered 50% implied probabilities across two dozen AI labs reflect intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena, where no single model has pulled ahead decisively through September 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered incremental gains on math-specific evaluations, but consistent leadership remains elusive due to rapid iteration cycles and varying strengths in chain-of-thought reasoning versus raw computation. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark dataset refreshes, and potential regulatory shifts affecting training compute access. Traders appear to view the November endpoint as too proximate for any lab to establish a durable edge without new capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly clustered 50% implied probabilities across two dozen AI labs reflect intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena, where no single model has pulled ahead decisively through September 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered incremental gains on math-specific evaluations, but consistent leadership remains elusive due to rapid iteration cycles and varying strengths in chain-of-thought reasoning versus raw computation. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark dataset refreshes, and potential regulatory shifts affecting training compute access. Traders appear to view the November endpoint as too proximate for any lab to establish a durable edge without new capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly clustered 50% implied probabilities across two dozen AI labs reflect intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks on platforms like Text Arena, where no single model has pulled ahead decisively through September 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered incremental gains on math-specific evaluations, but consistent leadership remains elusive due to rapid iteration cycles and varying strengths in chain-of-thought reasoning versus raw computation. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark dataset refreshes, and potential regulatory shifts affecting training compute access. Traders appear to view the November endpoint as too proximate for any lab to establish a durable edge without new capability demonstrations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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