**The 50% market-implied probability for Livvy Dunne and Paul Skenes getting engaged in 2026 reflects a stable but not yet committed relationship trajectory after more than three years together.** The couple, who met as student-athletes at LSU and went public in 2023, continues to appear together at MLB events, red carpets, and casual outings without any confirmed engagement or wedding plans as of late August. Recent coverage highlights their supportive dynamic—Dunne cheering at Pirates games and sharing lighthearted moments—while Skenes pursues a strong pitching season and she advances acting and modeling work, including her *Baywatch* reboot role. This equilibrium stems from the pair’s established long-distance routines and mutual career focus, which have sustained the relationship without rushing milestones. Historical patterns in high-profile athlete-influencer pairings show engagements often cluster around offseasons or holidays after the three-year mark, yet no public statements, ring sightings, or family hints have emerged to shift sentiment decisively. Traders appear to weigh the couple’s consistent public affection and shared milestones against the absence of precursor signals. Upcoming catalysts that could tip odds include the end of the 2026 MLB regular season and playoffs, holiday periods, or major announcements tied to Dunne’s projects. Any verified social media post, interview comment, or appearance change would likely move the market quickly given how rapidly celebrity personal news circulates.