**Dominant trader consensus on a 26°C overnight low for Shenzhen on August 28 stems from persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, with official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and multiple models projecting minima of 26–27°C amid high humidity (85–95%), extensive cloud cover, and recent heavy rainfall that limits radiative cooling.** Warm, moist air masses and light southwesterly winds maintain elevated temperatures through the night, consistent with August climatology where average lows hover near 25–27°C. The 98% implied probability for 26°C reflects alignment across observational data and short-range guidance, with only modest uncertainty around localized variations. A realistic shift to 25°C or lower would require clearer skies or an unexpected influx of drier air, though current steering patterns and model consensus make this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 28?
26°C 100.0%
25°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$2,000 Vol.
$2,000 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
25°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$2,000 Vol.
$2,000 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$169 Vol.
No
23°C
$80 Vol.
No
24°C
$29 Vol.
No
25°C
$93 Vol.
No
26°C
$346 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$85 Vol.
No
28°C
$276 Vol.
No
29°C
$502 Vol.
No
30°C
$84 Vol.
No
31°C
$244 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$94 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Dominant trader consensus on a 26°C overnight low for Shenzhen on August 28 stems from persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, with official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and multiple models projecting minima of 26–27°C amid high humidity (85–95%), extensive cloud cover, and recent heavy rainfall that limits radiative cooling.**
Warm, moist air masses and light southwesterly winds maintain elevated temperatures through the night, consistent with August climatology where average lows hover near 25–27°C. The 98% implied probability for 26°C reflects alignment across observational data and short-range guidance, with only modest uncertainty around localized variations. A realistic shift to 25°C or lower would require clearer skies or an unexpected influx of drier air, though current steering patterns and model consensus make this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,000End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Dominant trader consensus on a 26°C overnight low for Shenzhen on August 28 stems from persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, with official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and multiple models projecting minima of 26–27°C amid high humidity (85–95%), extensive cloud cover, and recent heavy rainfall that limits radiative cooling.**
Warm, moist air masses and light southwesterly winds maintain elevated temperatures through the night, consistent with August climatology where average lows hover near 25–27°C. The 98% implied probability for 26°C reflects alignment across observational data and short-range guidance, with only modest uncertainty around localized variations. A realistic shift to 25°C or lower would require clearer skies or an unexpected influx of drier air, though current steering patterns and model consensus make this improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,000End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Dominant trader consensus on a 26°C overnight low for Shenzhen on August 28 stems from persistent subtropical monsoon conditions, with official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and multiple models projecting minima of 26–27°C amid high humidity (85–95%), extensive cloud cover, and recent heavy rainfall that limits radiative cooling.** Warm, moist air masses and light southwesterly winds maintain elevated temperatures through the night, consistent with August climatology where average lows hover near 25–27°C. The 98% implied probability for 26°C reflects alignment across observational data and short-range guidance, with only modest uncertainty around localized variations. A realistic shift to 25°C or lower would require clearer skies or an unexpected influx of drier air, though current steering patterns and model consensus make this improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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