Maryland's 4th congressional district, centered in Prince George's County suburbs, features a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its voting history and lack of competitive general-election dynamics. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or abrupt change in candidate status. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent developments that would narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$46,938 Vol.
$46,938 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
<1%
$46,938 Vol.
$46,938 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,234 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district, centered in Prince George's County suburbs, features a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its voting history and lack of competitive general-election dynamics. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or abrupt change in candidate status. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent developments that would narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,938End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district, centered in Prince George's County suburbs, features a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its voting history and lack of competitive general-election dynamics. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or abrupt change in candidate status. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent developments that would narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,938End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district, centered in Prince George's County suburbs, features a strong Democratic partisan lean that has produced consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed as a perennial candidate. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its voting history and lack of competitive general-election dynamics. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for shifts absent an unforeseen event such as a major scandal or abrupt change in candidate status. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent developments that would narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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