Recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap place the AfD at a stable 35–36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the SPD recovering modestly to 28–29% under Minister President Manuela Schwesig. The AfD leads on immigration, economic issues, and regional interests but shows little further upward movement after earlier peaks near 37–38%. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left around 11%, the CDU near 10%, and smaller groups like the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below the 5% threshold. This narrow clustering around the mid-30s, combined with standard polling margins and limited late-campaign catalysts, keeps the race competitive among the 32–35% and 35–38% ranges in trader assessments. Minor shifts in turnout or coalition signals could still separate the outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35-38% 30%
32-35% 26%
<32% 23%
38%+ 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
23%
32-35%
26%
35-38%
30%
38%+
20%
35-38% 30%
32-35% 26%
<32% 23%
38%+ 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<32%
$198 Vol.
23%
32-35%
$652 Vol.
26%
35-38%
$176 Vol.
30%
38%+
$223 Vol.
20%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap place the AfD at a stable 35–36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the SPD recovering modestly to 28–29% under Minister President Manuela Schwesig. The AfD leads on immigration, economic issues, and regional interests but shows little further upward movement after earlier peaks near 37–38%. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left around 11%, the CDU near 10%, and smaller groups like the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below the 5% threshold. This narrow clustering around the mid-30s, combined with standard polling margins and limited late-campaign catalysts, keeps the race competitive among the 32–35% and 35–38% ranges in trader assessments. Minor shifts in turnout or coalition signals could still separate the outcomes before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,249End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap place the AfD at a stable 35–36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the SPD recovering modestly to 28–29% under Minister President Manuela Schwesig. The AfD leads on immigration, economic issues, and regional interests but shows little further upward movement after earlier peaks near 37–38%. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left around 11%, the CDU near 10%, and smaller groups like the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below the 5% threshold. This narrow clustering around the mid-30s, combined with standard polling margins and limited late-campaign catalysts, keeps the race competitive among the 32–35% and 35–38% ranges in trader assessments. Minor shifts in turnout or coalition signals could still separate the outcomes before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,249End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from INSA and Infratest dimap place the AfD at a stable 35–36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the SPD recovering modestly to 28–29% under Minister President Manuela Schwesig. The AfD leads on immigration, economic issues, and regional interests but shows little further upward movement after earlier peaks near 37–38%. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left around 11%, the CDU near 10%, and smaller groups like the Greens, BSW, and FDP hovering at or below the 5% threshold. This narrow clustering around the mid-30s, combined with standard polling margins and limited late-campaign catalysts, keeps the race competitive among the 32–35% and 35–38% ranges in trader assessments. Minor shifts in turnout or coalition signals could still separate the outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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