Missouri's 3rd congressional district leans strongly Republican, reflected in its 2024 presidential results favoring Trump by nearly 20 points and the incumbent's prior general election margin. Republican Bob Onder, the sitting representative, secured the party nomination on August 4, 2026, by defeating challenger John Fraser with 66% in the primary. Democrat Bethany Mann, the 2024 nominee, advanced from her primary but faces the same structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Traders price the Republican outcome at 90.5% because the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and recent primary consolidation leaves little room for an upset absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national wave large enough to overcome the district's baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$21,815 Vol.
$21,815 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$21,815 Vol.
$21,815 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,524 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$15,291 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district leans strongly Republican, reflected in its 2024 presidential results favoring Trump by nearly 20 points and the incumbent's prior general election margin. Republican Bob Onder, the sitting representative, secured the party nomination on August 4, 2026, by defeating challenger John Fraser with 66% in the primary. Democrat Bethany Mann, the 2024 nominee, advanced from her primary but faces the same structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Traders price the Republican outcome at 90.5% because the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and recent primary consolidation leaves little room for an upset absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national wave large enough to overcome the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,815End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district leans strongly Republican, reflected in its 2024 presidential results favoring Trump by nearly 20 points and the incumbent's prior general election margin. Republican Bob Onder, the sitting representative, secured the party nomination on August 4, 2026, by defeating challenger John Fraser with 66% in the primary. Democrat Bethany Mann, the 2024 nominee, advanced from her primary but faces the same structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Traders price the Republican outcome at 90.5% because the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and recent primary consolidation leaves little room for an upset absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national wave large enough to overcome the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,815End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 3rd congressional district leans strongly Republican, reflected in its 2024 presidential results favoring Trump by nearly 20 points and the incumbent's prior general election margin. Republican Bob Onder, the sitting representative, secured the party nomination on August 4, 2026, by defeating challenger John Fraser with 66% in the primary. Democrat Bethany Mann, the 2024 nominee, advanced from her primary but faces the same structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Traders price the Republican outcome at 90.5% because the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and recent primary consolidation leaves little room for an upset absent a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or national wave large enough to overcome the district's baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions