Vail Resorts' elevated 75.5% market-implied probability of missing consensus GAAP EPS in the upcoming quarter stems primarily from persistent weather-driven headwinds that produced a Q3 FY2026 miss ($8.81 actual versus $9.00–$9.05 estimates) and prompted management to trim full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance to $735–$755 million. Resort revenue fell 7% year-over-year amid a 15% drop in visitation, while early 2026/2027 North American season pass sales declined 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling demand sensitivity in key western markets. Analysts have highlighted the resulting margin pressure, elevated leverage near 3.5x net debt/EBITDA, and a stretched 99% payout ratio as additional constraints. With Q4 typically a seasonally weak period and no near-term catalysts to reverse these trends, trader consensus prices limited scope for an upside surprise relative to lowered expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
25% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts' elevated 75.5% market-implied probability of missing consensus GAAP EPS in the upcoming quarter stems primarily from persistent weather-driven headwinds that produced a Q3 FY2026 miss ($8.81 actual versus $9.00–$9.05 estimates) and prompted management to trim full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance to $735–$755 million. Resort revenue fell 7% year-over-year amid a 15% drop in visitation, while early 2026/2027 North American season pass sales declined 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling demand sensitivity in key western markets. Analysts have highlighted the resulting margin pressure, elevated leverage near 3.5x net debt/EBITDA, and a stretched 99% payout ratio as additional constraints. With Q4 typically a seasonally weak period and no near-term catalysts to reverse these trends, trader consensus prices limited scope for an upside surprise relative to lowered expectations.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$577End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Vail Resorts' elevated 75.5% market-implied probability of missing consensus GAAP EPS in the upcoming quarter stems primarily from persistent weather-driven headwinds that produced a Q3 FY2026 miss ($8.81 actual versus $9.00–$9.05 estimates) and prompted management to trim full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance to $735–$755 million. Resort revenue fell 7% year-over-year amid a 15% drop in visitation, while early 2026/2027 North American season pass sales declined 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling demand sensitivity in key western markets. Analysts have highlighted the resulting margin pressure, elevated leverage near 3.5x net debt/EBITDA, and a stretched 99% payout ratio as additional constraints. With Q4 typically a seasonally weak period and no near-term catalysts to reverse these trends, trader consensus prices limited scope for an upside surprise relative to lowered expectations.
As of market creation, Vail Resorts is estimated to release earnings on September 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Vail Resorts's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-5.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vail Resorts reports GAAP EPS greater than $-5.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Vail Resorts releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$577End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MTN/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Vail Resorts' elevated 75.5% market-implied probability of missing consensus GAAP EPS in the upcoming quarter stems primarily from persistent weather-driven headwinds that produced a Q3 FY2026 miss ($8.81 actual versus $9.00–$9.05 estimates) and prompted management to trim full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance to $735–$755 million. Resort revenue fell 7% year-over-year amid a 15% drop in visitation, while early 2026/2027 North American season pass sales declined 10% in units and 5% in dollars through late May, signaling demand sensitivity in key western markets. Analysts have highlighted the resulting margin pressure, elevated leverage near 3.5x net debt/EBITDA, and a stretched 99% payout ratio as additional constraints. With Q4 typically a seasonally weak period and no near-term catalysts to reverse these trends, trader consensus prices limited scope for an upside surprise relative to lowered expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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