New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, features Democratic Representative Chris Pappas as the clear primary front-runner and Republican John E. Sununu as the likely GOP nominee after the September 8 primaries. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polls show Pappas edging Sununu in head-to-head general election matchups by small margins, consistent with the state’s slight Democratic lean in federal contests and historical patterns for this seat. Sununu’s strong name recognition and family political history have kept the race competitive, drawing significant outside spending from both parties, yet aggregates continue to favor the Democrat. Traders’ 86.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects this polling consensus and structural advantages more than any single late-breaking event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$83,337 Vol.
$83,337 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
87%
Republican
15%
$83,337 Vol.
$83,337 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$56,424 Vol.
87%
Republican
$26,913 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, features Democratic Representative Chris Pappas as the clear primary front-runner and Republican John E. Sununu as the likely GOP nominee after the September 8 primaries. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polls show Pappas edging Sununu in head-to-head general election matchups by small margins, consistent with the state’s slight Democratic lean in federal contests and historical patterns for this seat. Sununu’s strong name recognition and family political history have kept the race competitive, drawing significant outside spending from both parties, yet aggregates continue to favor the Democrat. Traders’ 86.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects this polling consensus and structural advantages more than any single late-breaking event.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$83,337End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, features Democratic Representative Chris Pappas as the clear primary front-runner and Republican John E. Sununu as the likely GOP nominee after the September 8 primaries. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polls show Pappas edging Sununu in head-to-head general election matchups by small margins, consistent with the state’s slight Democratic lean in federal contests and historical patterns for this seat. Sununu’s strong name recognition and family political history have kept the race competitive, drawing significant outside spending from both parties, yet aggregates continue to favor the Democrat. Traders’ 86.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects this polling consensus and structural advantages more than any single late-breaking event.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$83,337End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, features Democratic Representative Chris Pappas as the clear primary front-runner and Republican John E. Sununu as the likely GOP nominee after the September 8 primaries. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polls show Pappas edging Sununu in head-to-head general election matchups by small margins, consistent with the state’s slight Democratic lean in federal contests and historical patterns for this seat. Sununu’s strong name recognition and family political history have kept the race competitive, drawing significant outside spending from both parties, yet aggregates continue to favor the Democrat. Traders’ 86.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner reflects this polling consensus and structural advantages more than any single late-breaking event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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