Google’s persistent delays on the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after its May I/O reveal—drive the 69.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The model remains in limited partner testing without a firm public or API launch date, official model page, or pricing, as Google prioritizes fixes for shortfalls in coding and agentic performance. Frequent Flash iterations (Gemini 3.6 in July and 3.7 on August 13) have filled the gap instead, while pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun. Traders see limited near-term catalysts before the end of September, with historical slippage patterns reinforcing the consensus around further postponement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by September 30 70%
September 30 5.1%
September 28 4.3%
On or prior to September 1 3.6%
$28,194 Vol.
$28,194 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
On or prior to September 1
4%
September 2
2%
September 3
2%
September 4
2%
September 5
2%
September 6
3%
September 7
2%
September 8
1%
September 9
1%
September 10
1%
September 11
1%
September 12
2%
September 13
1%
September 14
3%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
2%
September 21
1%
September 22
2%
September 23
2%
September 24
2%
September 25
2%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
4%
September 29
2%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
70%
No release by September 30 70%
September 30 5.1%
September 28 4.3%
On or prior to September 1 3.6%
$28,194 Vol.
$28,194 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
On or prior to September 1
$961 Vol.
4%
September 2
$175 Vol.
2%
September 3
$98 Vol.
2%
September 4
$98 Vol.
2%
September 5
$98 Vol.
2%
September 6
$170 Vol.
3%
September 7
$98 Vol.
2%
September 8
$157 Vol.
1%
September 9
$165 Vol.
1%
September 10
$165 Vol.
1%
September 11
$98 Vol.
1%
September 12
$98 Vol.
2%
September 13
$165 Vol.
1%
September 14
$170 Vol.
3%
September 15
$98 Vol.
2%
September 16
$98 Vol.
2%
September 17
$98 Vol.
2%
September 18
$101 Vol.
1%
September 19
$98 Vol.
1%
September 20
$98 Vol.
2%
September 21
$165 Vol.
1%
September 22
$98 Vol.
2%
September 23
$98 Vol.
2%
September 24
$98 Vol.
2%
September 25
$98 Vol.
2%
September 26
$163 Vol.
1%
September 27
$98 Vol.
1%
September 28
$258 Vol.
4%
September 29
$168 Vol.
2%
September 30
$256 Vol.
5%
No release by September 30
$23,383 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s persistent delays on the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after its May I/O reveal—drive the 69.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The model remains in limited partner testing without a firm public or API launch date, official model page, or pricing, as Google prioritizes fixes for shortfalls in coding and agentic performance. Frequent Flash iterations (Gemini 3.6 in July and 3.7 on August 13) have filled the gap instead, while pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun. Traders see limited near-term catalysts before the end of September, with historical slippage patterns reinforcing the consensus around further postponement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$28,194End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s persistent delays on the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after its May I/O reveal—drive the 69.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The model remains in limited partner testing without a firm public or API launch date, official model page, or pricing, as Google prioritizes fixes for shortfalls in coding and agentic performance. Frequent Flash iterations (Gemini 3.6 in July and 3.7 on August 13) have filled the gap instead, while pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun. Traders see limited near-term catalysts before the end of September, with historical slippage patterns reinforcing the consensus around further postponement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$28,194End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s persistent delays on the long-promised Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June after its May I/O reveal—drive the 69.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. The model remains in limited partner testing without a firm public or API launch date, official model page, or pricing, as Google prioritizes fixes for shortfalls in coding and agentic performance. Frequent Flash iterations (Gemini 3.6 in July and 3.7 on August 13) have filled the gap instead, while pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun. Traders see limited near-term catalysts before the end of September, with historical slippage patterns reinforcing the consensus around further postponement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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