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Politics·New Zealand

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

icon for Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands
Politics·New Zealand

Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands

Mark Brown 96.5%

Tina Browne 3.0%

Teariki Heather 1.3%

Polymarket

$50,985 Vol.

Mark Brown 96.5%

Tina Browne 3.0%

Teariki Heather 1.3%

Polymarket

$50,985 Vol.

icon for Mark Brown

Mark Brown

$40,714 Vol.

97%

icon for Tina Browne

Tina Browne

$5,715 Vol.

3%

icon for Teariki Heather

Teariki Heather

$4,556 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Brown's commanding position in the Cook Islands prime minister market stems directly from his Cook Islands Party's decisive victory in the August 12, 2026 general election, securing 13 of 24 parliamentary seats plus backing from multiple independents for a supermajority. Official results released in late August confirmed the party's fifth consecutive term, with the main opposition Democratic Party winning no seats. Traders reflect this outcome through strong consensus pricing, consistent with the incumbent's established parliamentary base and voter emphasis on continuity amid regional ties with New Zealand. Limited scenarios that could alter the result include unresolved petitions on narrow constituency margins or delays in formal swearing-in procedures, though these carry minimal probability given the scale of the majority.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50,985
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mark Brown's commanding position in the Cook Islands prime minister market stems directly from his Cook Islands Party's decisive victory in the August 12, 2026 general election, securing 13 of 24 parliamentary seats plus backing from multiple independents for a supermajority. Official results released in late August confirmed the party's fifth consecutive term, with the main opposition Democratic Party winning no seats. Traders reflect this outcome through strong consensus pricing, consistent with the incumbent's established parliamentary base and voter emphasis on continuity amid regional ties with New Zealand. Limited scenarios that could alter the result include unresolved petitions on narrow constituency margins or delays in formal swearing-in procedures, though these carry minimal probability given the scale of the majority.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50,985
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Cook Islands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Brown" at 97%, followed by "Tina Browne" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" has generated $51K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" is "Mark Brown" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tina Browne" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.