Denis Sassou Nguesso's March 2026 re-election to a new five-year term, confirmed by the constitutional court and followed by his April inauguration, anchors trader expectations that he will remain in office through the end of 2026. Official results showed him securing roughly 95 percent of the vote under the 2015 constitution, which caps eligibility after this mandate and schedules the next presidential contest for 2031. In the intervening months, the incumbent has maintained a full schedule of bilateral diplomacy, including meetings with French and other counterparts in September 2026, alongside domestic governance through his party apparatus, with no reported resignation signals, health developments, or institutional challenges that would trigger an early exit. The 89.5 percent implied probability on “No” therefore reflects the absence of any scheduled electoral or succession process before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.