Recent polling and Kremlin adjustments reflect the tight trader range around a 50-60% United Russia party-list share in the ongoing State Duma election. State pollsters project 47-53% amid lowered official targets from earlier 55%+ benchmarks, driven by war fatigue, economic strains, and stagnant party ratings near 30-40%. Independent surveys show lower figures of roughly 35-38% among decided voters, while administrative resources, ballot positioning advantages, and single-mandate contests bolster prospects for results above 50%. Exit polls near 53.5% and reports of variable turnout plus procedural questions keep implied probabilities clustered without clear separation until full official tallies resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50-55% 47%
55-60% 33%
60%+ 17%
45-50% 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
4%
40-45%
5%
45-50%
9%
50-55%
47%
55-60%
33%
60%+
17%
50-55% 47%
55-60% 33%
60%+ 17%
45-50% 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
$26 Vol.
4%
40-45%
$126 Vol.
5%
45-50%
$103 Vol.
9%
50-55%
$148 Vol.
47%
55-60%
$158 Vol.
33%
60%+
$434 Vol.
17%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling and Kremlin adjustments reflect the tight trader range around a 50-60% United Russia party-list share in the ongoing State Duma election. State pollsters project 47-53% amid lowered official targets from earlier 55%+ benchmarks, driven by war fatigue, economic strains, and stagnant party ratings near 30-40%. Independent surveys show lower figures of roughly 35-38% among decided voters, while administrative resources, ballot positioning advantages, and single-mandate contests bolster prospects for results above 50%. Exit polls near 53.5% and reports of variable turnout plus procedural questions keep implied probabilities clustered without clear separation until full official tallies resolve.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$971End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling and Kremlin adjustments reflect the tight trader range around a 50-60% United Russia party-list share in the ongoing State Duma election. State pollsters project 47-53% amid lowered official targets from earlier 55%+ benchmarks, driven by war fatigue, economic strains, and stagnant party ratings near 30-40%. Independent surveys show lower figures of roughly 35-38% among decided voters, while administrative resources, ballot positioning advantages, and single-mandate contests bolster prospects for results above 50%. Exit polls near 53.5% and reports of variable turnout plus procedural questions keep implied probabilities clustered without clear separation until full official tallies resolve.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$971End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and Kremlin adjustments reflect the tight trader range around a 50-60% United Russia party-list share in the ongoing State Duma election. State pollsters project 47-53% amid lowered official targets from earlier 55%+ benchmarks, driven by war fatigue, economic strains, and stagnant party ratings near 30-40%. Independent surveys show lower figures of roughly 35-38% among decided voters, while administrative resources, ballot positioning advantages, and single-mandate contests bolster prospects for results above 50%. Exit polls near 53.5% and reports of variable turnout plus procedural questions keep implied probabilities clustered without clear separation until full official tallies resolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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