Recent polling from both state-affiliated and independent sources places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in party-list support ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections, leaving its prospects of clearing the 5% threshold uncertain. As one of the four established systemic opposition parties alongside the CPRF, LDPR, and New People, SR benefits from ballot access, nationwide candidate nominations, and alignment with official positions on the Ukraine conflict. Exclusion of Yabloko has narrowed the field, potentially consolidating some protest votes among remaining options. Kremlin-linked analysts assign SR a roughly 65% chance of success, consistent with trader-implied probabilities near 63.5% for clearing the threshold. Single-mandate results and final turnout could still determine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from both state-affiliated and independent sources places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in party-list support ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections, leaving its prospects of clearing the 5% threshold uncertain. As one of the four established systemic opposition parties alongside the CPRF, LDPR, and New People, SR benefits from ballot access, nationwide candidate nominations, and alignment with official positions on the Ukraine conflict. Exclusion of Yabloko has narrowed the field, potentially consolidating some protest votes among remaining options. Kremlin-linked analysts assign SR a roughly 65% chance of success, consistent with trader-implied probabilities near 63.5% for clearing the threshold. Single-mandate results and final turnout could still determine the outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$6,135End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Recent polling from both state-affiliated and independent sources places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in party-list support ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections, leaving its prospects of clearing the 5% threshold uncertain. As one of the four established systemic opposition parties alongside the CPRF, LDPR, and New People, SR benefits from ballot access, nationwide candidate nominations, and alignment with official positions on the Ukraine conflict. Exclusion of Yabloko has narrowed the field, potentially consolidating some protest votes among remaining options. Kremlin-linked analysts assign SR a roughly 65% chance of success, consistent with trader-implied probabilities near 63.5% for clearing the threshold. Single-mandate results and final turnout could still determine the outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$6,135End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from both state-affiliated and independent sources places A Just Russia (SR) between 4% and 7% in party-list support ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections, leaving its prospects of clearing the 5% threshold uncertain. As one of the four established systemic opposition parties alongside the CPRF, LDPR, and New People, SR benefits from ballot access, nationwide candidate nominations, and alignment with official positions on the Ukraine conflict. Exclusion of Yabloko has narrowed the field, potentially consolidating some protest votes among remaining options. Kremlin-linked analysts assign SR a roughly 65% chance of success, consistent with trader-implied probabilities near 63.5% for clearing the threshold. Single-mandate results and final turnout could still determine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions