Mohammed Umaru Bago holds an 80.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Niger State governorship market ahead of the February 2027 election. As the incumbent APC governor, he secured the party’s nomination unopposed through consensus affirmation across all wards in May 2026, retaining his deputy on a Muslim-Muslim ticket in July. Traders price his re-election prospects on APC’s control of all 25 local government councils, infrastructure and agricultural initiatives, and the absence of credible intra-party challengers. Opposition nominees from the PDP and ADC, including Abubakar Suleiman and Mohammed Kpautagi, remain at single-digit probabilities due to limited state-level structures and resources. The market reflects trader consensus on incumbency advantage and party dominance rather than a guaranteed result, with outcomes still subject to primary results, campaign dynamics, and voter turnout in 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNiger, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Niger, Nigeria Governor Election Winner
Mohammed Umaru Bago 81%
Abubakar Suleiman 1.1%
Mohammed Kpautagi 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Mohammed Umaru Bago
81%
Abubakar Suleiman
1%
Mohammed Kpautagi
1%
Mohammed Umaru Bago 81%
Abubakar Suleiman 1.1%
Mohammed Kpautagi 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Mohammed Umaru Bago
$1,847 Vol.
81%
Abubakar Suleiman
$141 Vol.
1%
Mohammed Kpautagi
$85 Vol.
1%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Niger State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Mohammed Umaru Bago holds an 80.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Niger State governorship market ahead of the February 2027 election. As the incumbent APC governor, he secured the party’s nomination unopposed through consensus affirmation across all wards in May 2026, retaining his deputy on a Muslim-Muslim ticket in July. Traders price his re-election prospects on APC’s control of all 25 local government councils, infrastructure and agricultural initiatives, and the absence of credible intra-party challengers. Opposition nominees from the PDP and ADC, including Abubakar Suleiman and Mohammed Kpautagi, remain at single-digit probabilities due to limited state-level structures and resources. The market reflects trader consensus on incumbency advantage and party dominance rather than a guaranteed result, with outcomes still subject to primary results, campaign dynamics, and voter turnout in 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Niger State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,074End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Niger State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Mohammed Umaru Bago holds an 80.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Niger State governorship market ahead of the February 2027 election. As the incumbent APC governor, he secured the party’s nomination unopposed through consensus affirmation across all wards in May 2026, retaining his deputy on a Muslim-Muslim ticket in July. Traders price his re-election prospects on APC’s control of all 25 local government councils, infrastructure and agricultural initiatives, and the absence of credible intra-party challengers. Opposition nominees from the PDP and ADC, including Abubakar Suleiman and Mohammed Kpautagi, remain at single-digit probabilities due to limited state-level structures and resources. The market reflects trader consensus on incumbency advantage and party dominance rather than a guaranteed result, with outcomes still subject to primary results, campaign dynamics, and voter turnout in 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Niger State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$2,074End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mohammed Umaru Bago holds an 80.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the Niger State governorship market ahead of the February 2027 election. As the incumbent APC governor, he secured the party’s nomination unopposed through consensus affirmation across all wards in May 2026, retaining his deputy on a Muslim-Muslim ticket in July. Traders price his re-election prospects on APC’s control of all 25 local government councils, infrastructure and agricultural initiatives, and the absence of credible intra-party challengers. Opposition nominees from the PDP and ADC, including Abubakar Suleiman and Mohammed Kpautagi, remain at single-digit probabilities due to limited state-level structures and resources. The market reflects trader consensus on incumbency advantage and party dominance rather than a guaranteed result, with outcomes still subject to primary results, campaign dynamics, and voter turnout in 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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