Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding lead in the NJ-05 House race due to his unopposed Democratic primary victory in June 2026, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Republican nominee Sean Kirrane’s roughly $55,000, and the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge and lack of competitive Republican opposition following the primaries. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given current indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,051 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$2,301 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding lead in the NJ-05 House race due to his unopposed Democratic primary victory in June 2026, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Republican nominee Sean Kirrane’s roughly $55,000, and the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge and lack of competitive Republican opposition following the primaries. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$16,352End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding lead in the NJ-05 House race due to his unopposed Democratic primary victory in June 2026, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Republican nominee Sean Kirrane’s roughly $55,000, and the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge and lack of competitive Republican opposition following the primaries. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,352End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding lead in the NJ-05 House race due to his unopposed Democratic primary victory in June 2026, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Republican nominee Sean Kirrane’s roughly $55,000, and the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural edge and lack of competitive Republican opposition following the primaries. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high GOP turnout in Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given current indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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