The 5th Congressional District in southeast Queens has long favored Democratic candidates due to its voter demographics and consistent performance in past cycles, where the incumbent secured over 70% of the vote in 2024. Gregory Meeks, the sitting representative since 1998, advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary after challengers were disqualified or withdrew, while Republican nominee George Marsh also faced no primary opposition and reports minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the broader midterm environment where the out-of-power party typically gains ground. This positioning underpins the market's strong consensus on a Democratic outcome. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the nominee, or unusually high turnout driven by national events could still narrow margins, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-05 House Election Winner
NY-05 House Election Winner
$62,233 Vol.
$62,233 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$62,233 Vol.
$62,233 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,339 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$40,895 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 5th Congressional District in southeast Queens has long favored Democratic candidates due to its voter demographics and consistent performance in past cycles, where the incumbent secured over 70% of the vote in 2024. Gregory Meeks, the sitting representative since 1998, advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary after challengers were disqualified or withdrew, while Republican nominee George Marsh also faced no primary opposition and reports minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the broader midterm environment where the out-of-power party typically gains ground. This positioning underpins the market's strong consensus on a Democratic outcome. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the nominee, or unusually high turnout driven by national events could still narrow margins, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$62,233End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 5th Congressional District in southeast Queens has long favored Democratic candidates due to its voter demographics and consistent performance in past cycles, where the incumbent secured over 70% of the vote in 2024. Gregory Meeks, the sitting representative since 1998, advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary after challengers were disqualified or withdrew, while Republican nominee George Marsh also faced no primary opposition and reports minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the broader midterm environment where the out-of-power party typically gains ground. This positioning underpins the market's strong consensus on a Democratic outcome. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the nominee, or unusually high turnout driven by national events could still narrow margins, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$62,233End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 5th Congressional District in southeast Queens has long favored Democratic candidates due to its voter demographics and consistent performance in past cycles, where the incumbent secured over 70% of the vote in 2024. Gregory Meeks, the sitting representative since 1998, advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary after challengers were disqualified or withdrew, while Republican nominee George Marsh also faced no primary opposition and reports minimal fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the broader midterm environment where the out-of-power party typically gains ground. This positioning underpins the market's strong consensus on a Democratic outcome. A late scandal, serious health event affecting the nominee, or unusually high turnout driven by national events could still narrow margins, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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