North Korea conducted three ballistic missile test events in August 2026: single launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. No additional tests have been reported in the subsequent nine days. These developments align with Pyongyang’s pattern of periodic signaling around U.S.-South Korea exercises and diplomatic overtures, but activity has since subsided. With only one to two days remaining in the month and no visible escalation triggers, traders assign overwhelming probability to a total below four. A rapid series of launches in the final hours could still alter the count, though historical pacing and current quiet make that outcome remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
<4 93%
4 4.3%
5 1.4%
6+ <1%
$41,486 Vol.
$41,486 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<4
93%
4
4%
5
1%
6+
1%
<4 93%
4 4.3%
5 1.4%
6+ <1%
$41,486 Vol.
$41,486 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<4
$13,151 Vol.
93%
4
$2,621 Vol.
4%
5
$7,721 Vol.
1%
6+
$17,994 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea conducted three ballistic missile test events in August 2026: single launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. No additional tests have been reported in the subsequent nine days. These developments align with Pyongyang’s pattern of periodic signaling around U.S.-South Korea exercises and diplomatic overtures, but activity has since subsided. With only one to two days remaining in the month and no visible escalation triggers, traders assign overwhelming probability to a total below four. A rapid series of launches in the final hours could still alter the count, though historical pacing and current quiet make that outcome remote.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$41,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea conducted three ballistic missile test events in August 2026: single launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. No additional tests have been reported in the subsequent nine days. These developments align with Pyongyang’s pattern of periodic signaling around U.S.-South Korea exercises and diplomatic overtures, but activity has since subsided. With only one to two days remaining in the month and no visible escalation triggers, traders assign overwhelming probability to a total below four. A rapid series of launches in the final hours could still alter the count, though historical pacing and current quiet make that outcome remote.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$41,486End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea conducted three ballistic missile test events in August 2026: single launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, followed by a barrage of roughly 10 short-range missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. No additional tests have been reported in the subsequent nine days. These developments align with Pyongyang’s pattern of periodic signaling around U.S.-South Korea exercises and diplomatic overtures, but activity has since subsided. With only one to two days remaining in the month and no visible escalation triggers, traders assign overwhelming probability to a total below four. A rapid series of launches in the final hours could still alter the count, though historical pacing and current quiet make that outcome remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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