Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney faces Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 24th congressional district. The district’s R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report reflect its structural advantage for the GOP. Tenney advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Ellman prevailed in the June Democratic primary against limited opposition. Fundraising and candidate resources heavily favor the incumbent, with no recent polls, endorsements, or events indicating a shift in the race’s competitive balance. Traders price the Republican Party outcome near 90 percent, consistent with the district’s voting history and the absence of factors that would typically narrow such a margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,252 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$3,552 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney faces Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 24th congressional district. The district’s R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report reflect its structural advantage for the GOP. Tenney advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Ellman prevailed in the June Democratic primary against limited opposition. Fundraising and candidate resources heavily favor the incumbent, with no recent polls, endorsements, or events indicating a shift in the race’s competitive balance. Traders price the Republican Party outcome near 90 percent, consistent with the district’s voting history and the absence of factors that would typically narrow such a margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$9,805End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney faces Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 24th congressional district. The district’s R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report reflect its structural advantage for the GOP. Tenney advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Ellman prevailed in the June Democratic primary against limited opposition. Fundraising and candidate resources heavily favor the incumbent, with no recent polls, endorsements, or events indicating a shift in the race’s competitive balance. Traders price the Republican Party outcome near 90 percent, consistent with the district’s voting history and the absence of factors that would typically narrow such a margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,805End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney faces Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 24th congressional district. The district’s R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from outlets including the Cook Political Report reflect its structural advantage for the GOP. Tenney advanced unopposed through the Republican primary, while Ellman prevailed in the June Democratic primary against limited opposition. Fundraising and candidate resources heavily favor the incumbent, with no recent polls, endorsements, or events indicating a shift in the race’s competitive balance. Traders price the Republican Party outcome near 90 percent, consistent with the district’s voting history and the absence of factors that would typically narrow such a margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions