The NY-26 district's D+11 partisan lean, anchored in the Democratic-leaning Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, underpins the Democratic nominee's commanding position ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Tim Kennedy's prior 65% victory and uncontested primary path reflect established voter patterns, while forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with limited Republican infrastructure. The Republican nominee, Dennis Hannon, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Democrats. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and national generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning pockets could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's baseline partisan math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,626 Vol.
$26,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$26,626 Vol.
$26,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,443 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,183 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-26 district's D+11 partisan lean, anchored in the Democratic-leaning Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, underpins the Democratic nominee's commanding position ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Tim Kennedy's prior 65% victory and uncontested primary path reflect established voter patterns, while forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with limited Republican infrastructure. The Republican nominee, Dennis Hannon, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Democrats. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and national generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning pockets could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's baseline partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-26 district's D+11 partisan lean, anchored in the Democratic-leaning Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, underpins the Democratic nominee's commanding position ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Tim Kennedy's prior 65% victory and uncontested primary path reflect established voter patterns, while forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with limited Republican infrastructure. The Republican nominee, Dennis Hannon, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Democrats. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and national generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning pockets could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's baseline partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-26 district's D+11 partisan lean, anchored in the Democratic-leaning Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, underpins the Democratic nominee's commanding position ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Tim Kennedy's prior 65% victory and uncontested primary path reflect established voter patterns, while forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with limited Republican infrastructure. The Republican nominee, Dennis Hannon, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Democrats. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and national generic ballot trends favoring the opposition party. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning pockets could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's baseline partisan math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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