Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured a decisive 71% in the June 2026 primary, advancing against a limited field in Oklahoma's 4th District, which carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob. This entrenched incumbency advantage, combined with consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Republican outcome price. Realistic shifts remain possible through late-cycle national developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals that could alter turnout dynamics in this reliably conservative district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,515 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,874 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured a decisive 71% in the June 2026 primary, advancing against a limited field in Oklahoma's 4th District, which carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob. This entrenched incumbency advantage, combined with consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Republican outcome price. Realistic shifts remain possible through late-cycle national developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals that could alter turnout dynamics in this reliably conservative district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,389End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured a decisive 71% in the June 2026 primary, advancing against a limited field in Oklahoma's 4th District, which carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob. This entrenched incumbency advantage, combined with consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Republican outcome price. Realistic shifts remain possible through late-cycle national developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals that could alter turnout dynamics in this reliably conservative district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,389End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured a decisive 71% in the June 2026 primary, advancing against a limited field in Oklahoma's 4th District, which carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election against Democratic nominee Mitchell Jacob. This entrenched incumbency advantage, combined with consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Republican outcome price. Realistic shifts remain possible through late-cycle national developments, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals that could alter turnout dynamics in this reliably conservative district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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