OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its unreleased frontier model first referenced in an August 1 math research post, cannot be ruled out for “Critical” cybersecurity capabilities under the company’s Preparedness Framework has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. The company paused non-compliant internal work, moved to isolated testing environments, and expanded monitoring while notifying regulators, marking the first such slowdown for a major model. Despite these safeguards, Astra’s demonstrated agentic strengths—long-running tasks, multi-agent collaboration, and advanced coding—align with OpenAI’s AGI timeline ambitions and competitive pressure from other labs. Markets reflect continued confidence in a near-term public release once reviews conclude, with upcoming catalysts including external safety evaluations and potential Codex integrations likely to clarify timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$373,438 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
3%
September 15
56%
September 30
80%
October 31
89%
$373,438 Vol.
August 31
$147,376 Vol.
3%
September 15
$57,939 Vol.
56%
September 30
$65,795 Vol.
80%
October 31
$32,739 Vol.
89%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its unreleased frontier model first referenced in an August 1 math research post, cannot be ruled out for “Critical” cybersecurity capabilities under the company’s Preparedness Framework has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. The company paused non-compliant internal work, moved to isolated testing environments, and expanded monitoring while notifying regulators, marking the first such slowdown for a major model. Despite these safeguards, Astra’s demonstrated agentic strengths—long-running tasks, multi-agent collaboration, and advanced coding—align with OpenAI’s AGI timeline ambitions and competitive pressure from other labs. Markets reflect continued confidence in a near-term public release once reviews conclude, with upcoming catalysts including external safety evaluations and potential Codex integrations likely to clarify timing.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$373,438End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its unreleased frontier model first referenced in an August 1 math research post, cannot be ruled out for “Critical” cybersecurity capabilities under the company’s Preparedness Framework has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. The company paused non-compliant internal work, moved to isolated testing environments, and expanded monitoring while notifying regulators, marking the first such slowdown for a major model. Despite these safeguards, Astra’s demonstrated agentic strengths—long-running tasks, multi-agent collaboration, and advanced coding—align with OpenAI’s AGI timeline ambitions and competitive pressure from other labs. Markets reflect continued confidence in a near-term public release once reviews conclude, with upcoming catalysts including external safety evaluations and potential Codex integrations likely to clarify timing.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$373,438End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s August 7 disclosure that Astra, its unreleased frontier model first referenced in an August 1 math research post, cannot be ruled out for “Critical” cybersecurity capabilities under the company’s Preparedness Framework has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. The company paused non-compliant internal work, moved to isolated testing environments, and expanded monitoring while notifying regulators, marking the first such slowdown for a major model. Despite these safeguards, Astra’s demonstrated agentic strengths—long-running tasks, multi-agent collaboration, and advanced coding—align with OpenAI’s AGI timeline ambitions and competitive pressure from other labs. Markets reflect continued confidence in a near-term public release once reviews conclude, with upcoming catalysts including external safety evaluations and potential Codex integrations likely to clarify timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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