The Parti Québécois holds a decisive lead in Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election market because first-past-the-post dynamics favor its concentrated francophone support, enabling a projected majority or plurality of seats even with roughly 30 percent of the popular vote. Recent Léger and other polls show the PQ maintaining that share while the federalist vote fragments among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with the CAQ recording a modest three-point rebound in the latest survey yet remaining well behind. Official campaign launch and regional three-way races in areas such as Quebec City further underscore volatility, though aggregate seat models assign the PQ near-certain odds of securing the most ridings. High undecided voters and the PQ’s referendum positioning continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 71%
CAQ 21%
PLQ 10%
PCQ <1%
$825,060 Vol.
$825,060 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
71%
CAQ
21%
PLQ
10%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 71%
CAQ 21%
PLQ 10%
PCQ <1%
$825,060 Vol.
$825,060 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$95,735 Vol.
71%
CAQ
$121,684 Vol.
21%
PLQ
$111,203 Vol.
10%
PCQ
$234,393 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois holds a decisive lead in Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election market because first-past-the-post dynamics favor its concentrated francophone support, enabling a projected majority or plurality of seats even with roughly 30 percent of the popular vote. Recent Léger and other polls show the PQ maintaining that share while the federalist vote fragments among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with the CAQ recording a modest three-point rebound in the latest survey yet remaining well behind. Official campaign launch and regional three-way races in areas such as Quebec City further underscore volatility, though aggregate seat models assign the PQ near-certain odds of securing the most ridings. High undecided voters and the PQ’s referendum positioning continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$825,060End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois holds a decisive lead in Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election market because first-past-the-post dynamics favor its concentrated francophone support, enabling a projected majority or plurality of seats even with roughly 30 percent of the popular vote. Recent Léger and other polls show the PQ maintaining that share while the federalist vote fragments among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with the CAQ recording a modest three-point rebound in the latest survey yet remaining well behind. Official campaign launch and regional three-way races in areas such as Quebec City further underscore volatility, though aggregate seat models assign the PQ near-certain odds of securing the most ridings. High undecided voters and the PQ’s referendum positioning continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$825,060End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois holds a decisive lead in Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election market because first-past-the-post dynamics favor its concentrated francophone support, enabling a projected majority or plurality of seats even with roughly 30 percent of the popular vote. Recent Léger and other polls show the PQ maintaining that share while the federalist vote fragments among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, with the CAQ recording a modest three-point rebound in the latest survey yet remaining well behind. Official campaign launch and regional three-way races in areas such as Quebec City further underscore volatility, though aggregate seat models assign the PQ near-certain odds of securing the most ridings. High undecided voters and the PQ’s referendum positioning continue to shape trader assessments of the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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