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icon for South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterms

South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout

icon for South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterms

South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout

<250K 43%

300K-325K 42%

350K-375K 42%

375K-400K 41%

Polymarket
NEW

<250K 43%

300K-325K 42%

350K-375K 42%

375K-400K 41%

Polymarket
NEW

<250K

$25 Vol.

43%

250K-275K

$25 Vol.

41%

275K-300K

$25 Vol.

40%

300K-325K

$25 Vol.

42%

325K-350K

$25 Vol.

40%

350K-375K

$25 Vol.

42%

375K-400K

$25 Vol.

41%

400K+

$48 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race features incumbent Republican Mike Rounds facing independent Brian Bengs in a contest widely viewed as safely Republican, with limited Democratic infrastructure after the party nominee withdrew. Recent July primary and runoff turnout reached only about 36 percent statewide, consistent with low-engagement off-year patterns and pre-election polling that signaled limited competitiveness. A new proof-of-citizenship registration requirement has triggered litigation that could affect eligible voter rolls or participation. Trader consensus clusters around the 250K–275K range because these factors—modest mobilization incentives, historical midterm baselines, and procedural uncertainty—support expectations of subdued general-election participation rather than elevated turnout driven by a high-stakes contest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$223
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota’s 2026 Senate race features incumbent Republican Mike Rounds facing independent Brian Bengs in a contest widely viewed as safely Republican, with limited Democratic infrastructure after the party nominee withdrew. Recent July primary and runoff turnout reached only about 36 percent statewide, consistent with low-engagement off-year patterns and pre-election polling that signaled limited competitiveness. A new proof-of-citizenship registration requirement has triggered litigation that could affect eligible voter rolls or participation. Trader consensus clusters around the 250K–275K range because these factors—modest mobilization incentives, historical midterm baselines, and procedural uncertainty—support expectations of subdued general-election participation rather than elevated turnout driven by a high-stakes contest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$223
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "400K+" at 45%, followed by "<250K" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout" is "400K+" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<250K" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.