**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became one of the fastest films ever to reach major milestones, crossing $800 million domestically within three weeks. However, its legs have proven typical for a summer tentpole, with sharp weekend drops (–60%, –51%, –45%) and daily grosses now in the low single-digit millions by late August. As of August 27, the domestic total stood at approximately $869 million. With only August 28–31 remaining before the cutoff, current run rates point to roughly $5–8 million more in ticket sales—placing the final figure comfortably below $900 million. Trader consensus reflects this reality, pricing the sub-$900 million outcome at 98.8% while assigning negligible probability to any higher bracket. An upset would require daily earnings to surge dramatically in the final days, something that has not occurred in the film’s fourth and fifth weekends and contradicts both historical patterns for superhero sequels and the current theater counts and audience engagement data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 98.8%
900 - 920m 1.0%
920 - 940m <1%
940 - 960m <1%
$551,028 Vol.
$551,028 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
99%
900 - 920m
1%
920 - 940m
<1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 98.8%
900 - 920m 1.0%
920 - 940m <1%
940 - 960m <1%
$551,028 Vol.
$551,028 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$126,117 Vol.
99%
900 - 920m
$114,991 Vol.
1%
920 - 940m
$44,638 Vol.
<1%
940 - 960m
$29,584 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$20,264 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,360 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$1,764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$199,810 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became one of the fastest films ever to reach major milestones, crossing $800 million domestically within three weeks. However, its legs have proven typical for a summer tentpole, with sharp weekend drops (–60%, –51%, –45%) and daily grosses now in the low single-digit millions by late August.
As of August 27, the domestic total stood at approximately $869 million. With only August 28–31 remaining before the cutoff, current run rates point to roughly $5–8 million more in ticket sales—placing the final figure comfortably below $900 million. Trader consensus reflects this reality, pricing the sub-$900 million outcome at 98.8% while assigning negligible probability to any higher bracket.
An upset would require daily earnings to surge dramatically in the final days, something that has not occurred in the film’s fourth and fifth weekends and contradicts both historical patterns for superhero sequels and the current theater counts and audience engagement data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$551,028End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became one of the fastest films ever to reach major milestones, crossing $800 million domestically within three weeks. However, its legs have proven typical for a summer tentpole, with sharp weekend drops (–60%, –51%, –45%) and daily grosses now in the low single-digit millions by late August.
As of August 27, the domestic total stood at approximately $869 million. With only August 28–31 remaining before the cutoff, current run rates point to roughly $5–8 million more in ticket sales—placing the final figure comfortably below $900 million. Trader consensus reflects this reality, pricing the sub-$900 million outcome at 98.8% while assigning negligible probability to any higher bracket.
An upset would require daily earnings to surge dramatically in the final days, something that has not occurred in the film’s fourth and fifth weekends and contradicts both historical patterns for superhero sequels and the current theater counts and audience engagement data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$551,028End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became one of the fastest films ever to reach major milestones, crossing $800 million domestically within three weeks. However, its legs have proven typical for a summer tentpole, with sharp weekend drops (–60%, –51%, –45%) and daily grosses now in the low single-digit millions by late August. As of August 27, the domestic total stood at approximately $869 million. With only August 28–31 remaining before the cutoff, current run rates point to roughly $5–8 million more in ticket sales—placing the final figure comfortably below $900 million. Trader consensus reflects this reality, pricing the sub-$900 million outcome at 98.8% while assigning negligible probability to any higher bracket. An upset would require daily earnings to surge dramatically in the final days, something that has not occurred in the film’s fourth and fifth weekends and contradicts both historical patterns for superhero sequels and the current theater counts and audience engagement data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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