Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning the GOP nominee a 96.7% implied probability of victory over Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw. Tennessee’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by double-digit presidential margins in recent cycles and the absence of a Democratic Senate win since 1990, underpins this consensus. Hagerty faced no primary opposition after winning the 2020 seat, while Bradshaw secured her nomination in the August 6 primary but enters the general election in a state rated Safe or Solid Republican by every major forecaster. Limited general-election polling reflects the race’s fundamentals, with models projecting a margin exceeding 25 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$29,449 Vol.
$29,449 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
97%
Democrat
3%
$29,449 Vol.
$29,449 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$19,060 Vol.
97%
Democrat
$10,390 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning the GOP nominee a 96.7% implied probability of victory over Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw. Tennessee’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by double-digit presidential margins in recent cycles and the absence of a Democratic Senate win since 1990, underpins this consensus. Hagerty faced no primary opposition after winning the 2020 seat, while Bradshaw secured her nomination in the August 6 primary but enters the general election in a state rated Safe or Solid Republican by every major forecaster. Limited general-election polling reflects the race’s fundamentals, with models projecting a margin exceeding 25 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,449End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning the GOP nominee a 96.7% implied probability of victory over Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw. Tennessee’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by double-digit presidential margins in recent cycles and the absence of a Democratic Senate win since 1990, underpins this consensus. Hagerty faced no primary opposition after winning the 2020 seat, while Bradshaw secured her nomination in the August 6 primary but enters the general election in a state rated Safe or Solid Republican by every major forecaster. Limited general-election polling reflects the race’s fundamentals, with models projecting a margin exceeding 25 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,449End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty holds a commanding position in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with traders assigning the GOP nominee a 96.7% implied probability of victory over Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw. Tennessee’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by double-digit presidential margins in recent cycles and the absence of a Democratic Senate win since 1990, underpins this consensus. Hagerty faced no primary opposition after winning the 2020 seat, while Bradshaw secured her nomination in the August 6 primary but enters the general election in a state rated Safe or Solid Republican by every major forecaster. Limited general-election polling reflects the race’s fundamentals, with models projecting a margin exceeding 25 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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