**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that President Trump remains in office through the end of 2026** because removal faces steep constitutional and political barriers. Impeachment by the House remains possible after expected Democratic gains in the November midterms, yet conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority that current partisan alignments make improbable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands Cabinet action followed by the same supermajority threshold in both chambers, with no active moves underway. Official medical updates describe the president, now 80, as in strong physical condition, while resignation shows negligible market pricing. Recent staff departures and low approval ratings reflect midterm pressures and policy friction, including the Iran conflict, but have not altered the institutional path to an early exit before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$11,159,290 Vol.
$11,159,290 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$11,159,290 Vol.
$11,159,290 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that President Trump remains in office through the end of 2026** because removal faces steep constitutional and political barriers. Impeachment by the House remains possible after expected Democratic gains in the November midterms, yet conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority that current partisan alignments make improbable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands Cabinet action followed by the same supermajority threshold in both chambers, with no active moves underway. Official medical updates describe the president, now 80, as in strong physical condition, while resignation shows negligible market pricing. Recent staff departures and low approval ratings reflect midterm pressures and policy friction, including the Iran conflict, but have not altered the institutional path to an early exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,159,290End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that President Trump remains in office through the end of 2026** because removal faces steep constitutional and political barriers. Impeachment by the House remains possible after expected Democratic gains in the November midterms, yet conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority that current partisan alignments make improbable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands Cabinet action followed by the same supermajority threshold in both chambers, with no active moves underway. Official medical updates describe the president, now 80, as in strong physical condition, while resignation shows negligible market pricing. Recent staff departures and low approval ratings reflect midterm pressures and policy friction, including the Iran conflict, but have not altered the institutional path to an early exit before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,159,290End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that President Trump remains in office through the end of 2026** because removal faces steep constitutional and political barriers. Impeachment by the House remains possible after expected Democratic gains in the November midterms, yet conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority that current partisan alignments make improbable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment demands Cabinet action followed by the same supermajority threshold in both chambers, with no active moves underway. Official medical updates describe the president, now 80, as in strong physical condition, while resignation shows negligible market pricing. Recent staff departures and low approval ratings reflect midterm pressures and policy friction, including the Iran conflict, but have not altered the institutional path to an early exit before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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