US-Turkey defense ties have seen renewed momentum since President Trump’s June and July 2026 statements signaling willingness to lift CAATSA sanctions and consider F-35 readmission, including Pentagon reviews of legal certifications tied to the S-400 system. Turkish officials described joint working-group talks in Washington as the most constructive in years, with options under discussion to meet statutory requirements that Turkey no longer possess the Russian air-defense equipment. The July NATO summit in Ankara produced additional positive signals from both leaders, alongside advancing US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s domestic fighter program. As of late July, however, the State Department confirmed Ankara has not yet satisfied the conditions in the FY2020 NDAA, leaving rejoining dependent on verifiable S-400 resolution, congressional support, and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These diplomatic and legislative steps remain the central variables shaping trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
24%
$43,408 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense ties have seen renewed momentum since President Trump’s June and July 2026 statements signaling willingness to lift CAATSA sanctions and consider F-35 readmission, including Pentagon reviews of legal certifications tied to the S-400 system. Turkish officials described joint working-group talks in Washington as the most constructive in years, with options under discussion to meet statutory requirements that Turkey no longer possess the Russian air-defense equipment. The July NATO summit in Ankara produced additional positive signals from both leaders, alongside advancing US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s domestic fighter program. As of late July, however, the State Department confirmed Ankara has not yet satisfied the conditions in the FY2020 NDAA, leaving rejoining dependent on verifiable S-400 resolution, congressional support, and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These diplomatic and legislative steps remain the central variables shaping trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense ties have seen renewed momentum since President Trump’s June and July 2026 statements signaling willingness to lift CAATSA sanctions and consider F-35 readmission, including Pentagon reviews of legal certifications tied to the S-400 system. Turkish officials described joint working-group talks in Washington as the most constructive in years, with options under discussion to meet statutory requirements that Turkey no longer possess the Russian air-defense equipment. The July NATO summit in Ankara produced additional positive signals from both leaders, alongside advancing US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s domestic fighter program. As of late July, however, the State Department confirmed Ankara has not yet satisfied the conditions in the FY2020 NDAA, leaving rejoining dependent on verifiable S-400 resolution, congressional support, and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These diplomatic and legislative steps remain the central variables shaping trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Turkey defense ties have seen renewed momentum since President Trump’s June and July 2026 statements signaling willingness to lift CAATSA sanctions and consider F-35 readmission, including Pentagon reviews of legal certifications tied to the S-400 system. Turkish officials described joint working-group talks in Washington as the most constructive in years, with options under discussion to meet statutory requirements that Turkey no longer possess the Russian air-defense equipment. The July NATO summit in Ankara produced additional positive signals from both leaders, alongside advancing US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s domestic fighter program. As of late July, however, the State Department confirmed Ankara has not yet satisfied the conditions in the FY2020 NDAA, leaving rejoining dependent on verifiable S-400 resolution, congressional support, and regional concerns from Greece and Israel. These diplomatic and legislative steps remain the central variables shaping trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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