The solidly Republican tilt of Texas's 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 60% margin there in 2024, underpins the Republican Party's commanding 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination with nearly 60% in the March 2026 primary despite multiple challengers, while Democrat Justin Early won his party's nomination; both advance to the November 3 general election alongside a Green Party candidate. Recent polling aggregates and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Potential challenges include a broad national Democratic wave, unusually high opposition turnout in suburban Williamson County areas, or unforeseen developments involving the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$38,896 Vol.
$38,896 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$38,896 Vol.
$38,896 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,400 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$19,496 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican tilt of Texas's 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 60% margin there in 2024, underpins the Republican Party's commanding 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination with nearly 60% in the March 2026 primary despite multiple challengers, while Democrat Justin Early won his party's nomination; both advance to the November 3 general election alongside a Green Party candidate. Recent polling aggregates and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Potential challenges include a broad national Democratic wave, unusually high opposition turnout in suburban Williamson County areas, or unforeseen developments involving the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$38,896End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican tilt of Texas's 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 60% margin there in 2024, underpins the Republican Party's commanding 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination with nearly 60% in the March 2026 primary despite multiple challengers, while Democrat Justin Early won his party's nomination; both advance to the November 3 general election alongside a Green Party candidate. Recent polling aggregates and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Potential challenges include a broad national Democratic wave, unusually high opposition turnout in suburban Williamson County areas, or unforeseen developments involving the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,896End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Republican tilt of Texas's 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 60% margin there in 2024, underpins the Republican Party's commanding 90.5% implied probability. Incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination with nearly 60% in the March 2026 primary despite multiple challengers, while Democrat Justin Early won his party's nomination; both advance to the November 3 general election alongside a Green Party candidate. Recent polling aggregates and race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. Potential challenges include a broad national Democratic wave, unusually high opposition turnout in suburban Williamson County areas, or unforeseen developments involving the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions