**Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough holds a strong position in Texas’s 32nd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 77.5% Republican outcome price.** The district, redrawn in 2025, covers suburban areas north and northeast of Dallas including Richardson, parts of Garland and Rowlett, and extends eastward into Rockwall and other counties, carrying an R+8 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results. Yarbrough advanced as the GOP nominee after the March 2026 primary and the subsequent runoff cancellation when opponent Ryan Binkley withdrew. Democrat Dan Barrios secured his party’s nomination in the March primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, with Decision Desk HQ classifying it Likely Republican, citing the district’s partisan lean and open-seat dynamics following Julie Johnson’s move to another district. No recent district-specific polls have shifted sentiment, and broader Texas polling trends have not produced competitive signals here. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of late-cycle developments keep the implied probability aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$29,553 Vol.
$29,553 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
78%
Democratic Party
23%
$29,553 Vol.
$29,553 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$27,294 Vol.
78%
Democratic Party
$2,258 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough holds a strong position in Texas’s 32nd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 77.5% Republican outcome price.** The district, redrawn in 2025, covers suburban areas north and northeast of Dallas including Richardson, parts of Garland and Rowlett, and extends eastward into Rockwall and other counties, carrying an R+8 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results.
Yarbrough advanced as the GOP nominee after the March 2026 primary and the subsequent runoff cancellation when opponent Ryan Binkley withdrew. Democrat Dan Barrios secured his party’s nomination in the March primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, with Decision Desk HQ classifying it Likely Republican, citing the district’s partisan lean and open-seat dynamics following Julie Johnson’s move to another district.
No recent district-specific polls have shifted sentiment, and broader Texas polling trends have not produced competitive signals here. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of late-cycle developments keep the implied probability aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$29,553End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough holds a strong position in Texas’s 32nd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 77.5% Republican outcome price.** The district, redrawn in 2025, covers suburban areas north and northeast of Dallas including Richardson, parts of Garland and Rowlett, and extends eastward into Rockwall and other counties, carrying an R+8 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results.
Yarbrough advanced as the GOP nominee after the March 2026 primary and the subsequent runoff cancellation when opponent Ryan Binkley withdrew. Democrat Dan Barrios secured his party’s nomination in the March primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, with Decision Desk HQ classifying it Likely Republican, citing the district’s partisan lean and open-seat dynamics following Julie Johnson’s move to another district.
No recent district-specific polls have shifted sentiment, and broader Texas polling trends have not produced competitive signals here. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of late-cycle developments keep the implied probability aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,553End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough holds a strong position in Texas’s 32nd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 77.5% Republican outcome price.** The district, redrawn in 2025, covers suburban areas north and northeast of Dallas including Richardson, parts of Garland and Rowlett, and extends eastward into Rockwall and other counties, carrying an R+8 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results. Yarbrough advanced as the GOP nominee after the March 2026 primary and the subsequent runoff cancellation when opponent Ryan Binkley withdrew. Democrat Dan Barrios secured his party’s nomination in the March primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, with Decision Desk HQ classifying it Likely Republican, citing the district’s partisan lean and open-seat dynamics following Julie Johnson’s move to another district. No recent district-specific polls have shifted sentiment, and broader Texas polling trends have not produced competitive signals here. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of late-cycle developments keep the implied probability aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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