Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation package that lifted the cap to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures provides additional runway, while both parties face strong incentives to prevent missed Treasury payments that would trigger higher borrowing costs, market volatility, and credit rating pressure. Projections place the next debt-limit contact around mid-2027, after the market’s resolution window. Even with this consensus, outcomes could shift from extended congressional gridlock, failure to enact necessary appropriations, or an acute fiscal shock that delays legislative action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% chance
$16,694 Vol.
$16,694 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$16,694 Vol.
$16,694 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation package that lifted the cap to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures provides additional runway, while both parties face strong incentives to prevent missed Treasury payments that would trigger higher borrowing costs, market volatility, and credit rating pressure. Projections place the next debt-limit contact around mid-2027, after the market’s resolution window. Even with this consensus, outcomes could shift from extended congressional gridlock, failure to enact necessary appropriations, or an acute fiscal shock that delays legislative action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$16,694End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation package that lifted the cap to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures provides additional runway, while both parties face strong incentives to prevent missed Treasury payments that would trigger higher borrowing costs, market volatility, and credit rating pressure. Projections place the next debt-limit contact around mid-2027, after the market’s resolution window. Even with this consensus, outcomes could shift from extended congressional gridlock, failure to enact necessary appropriations, or an acute fiscal shock that delays legislative action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$16,694End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation package that lifted the cap to $41.1 trillion. The Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures provides additional runway, while both parties face strong incentives to prevent missed Treasury payments that would trigger higher borrowing costs, market volatility, and credit rating pressure. Projections place the next debt-limit contact around mid-2027, after the market’s resolution window. Even with this consensus, outcomes could shift from extended congressional gridlock, failure to enact necessary appropriations, or an acute fiscal shock that delays legislative action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions