Republican John McGuire, the incumbent who won the seat in 2024 and secured his party's nomination with 84 percent in the August 4 primary, holds an 84 percent implied probability in the VA-05 market. The district's R+6 partisan voting index, combined with Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader consensus despite a late-July internal poll showing McGuire at 47 percent to Democrat Tom Perriello's 44 percent initially. Perriello, a former representative who won his party's primary overwhelmingly, benefits from targeted messaging that narrowed the gap in testing, yet most independent ratings continue to classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. An independent candidate on the November 3 ballot adds minor uncertainty but has not altered the dominant positioning driven by the district's voting history and McGuire's incumbency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-05 House Election Winner
VA-05 House Election Winner
$65,145 Vol.
$65,145 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
17%
$65,145 Vol.
$65,145 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$32,164 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$32,981 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican John McGuire, the incumbent who won the seat in 2024 and secured his party's nomination with 84 percent in the August 4 primary, holds an 84 percent implied probability in the VA-05 market. The district's R+6 partisan voting index, combined with Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader consensus despite a late-July internal poll showing McGuire at 47 percent to Democrat Tom Perriello's 44 percent initially. Perriello, a former representative who won his party's primary overwhelmingly, benefits from targeted messaging that narrowed the gap in testing, yet most independent ratings continue to classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. An independent candidate on the November 3 ballot adds minor uncertainty but has not altered the dominant positioning driven by the district's voting history and McGuire's incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$65,145End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican John McGuire, the incumbent who won the seat in 2024 and secured his party's nomination with 84 percent in the August 4 primary, holds an 84 percent implied probability in the VA-05 market. The district's R+6 partisan voting index, combined with Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader consensus despite a late-July internal poll showing McGuire at 47 percent to Democrat Tom Perriello's 44 percent initially. Perriello, a former representative who won his party's primary overwhelmingly, benefits from targeted messaging that narrowed the gap in testing, yet most independent ratings continue to classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. An independent candidate on the November 3 ballot adds minor uncertainty but has not altered the dominant positioning driven by the district's voting history and McGuire's incumbency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$65,145End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican John McGuire, the incumbent who won the seat in 2024 and secured his party's nomination with 84 percent in the August 4 primary, holds an 84 percent implied probability in the VA-05 market. The district's R+6 partisan voting index, combined with Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024, underpins trader consensus despite a late-July internal poll showing McGuire at 47 percent to Democrat Tom Perriello's 44 percent initially. Perriello, a former representative who won his party's primary overwhelmingly, benefits from targeted messaging that narrowed the gap in testing, yet most independent ratings continue to classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. An independent candidate on the November 3 ballot adds minor uncertainty but has not altered the dominant positioning driven by the district's voting history and McGuire's incumbency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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