James Walkinshaw’s incumbency in the heavily Democratic Virginia 11th district, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, anchors trader consensus at 97% for the Democratic nominee. Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election with 75% of the vote following Gerry Connolly’s death and advanced unopposed after the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary was canceled. The Republican nominee, Arthur Purves, faces minimal fundraising and no primary contest, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters see little path for Republicans absent a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment that overrides the district’s structural lean and Walkinshaw’s established local position ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-11 House Election Winner
VA-11 House Election Winner
$28,196 Vol.
$28,196 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$28,196 Vol.
$28,196 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,600 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$11,596 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw’s incumbency in the heavily Democratic Virginia 11th district, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, anchors trader consensus at 97% for the Democratic nominee. Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election with 75% of the vote following Gerry Connolly’s death and advanced unopposed after the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary was canceled. The Republican nominee, Arthur Purves, faces minimal fundraising and no primary contest, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters see little path for Republicans absent a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment that overrides the district’s structural lean and Walkinshaw’s established local position ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,196End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw’s incumbency in the heavily Democratic Virginia 11th district, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, anchors trader consensus at 97% for the Democratic nominee. Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election with 75% of the vote following Gerry Connolly’s death and advanced unopposed after the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary was canceled. The Republican nominee, Arthur Purves, faces minimal fundraising and no primary contest, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters see little path for Republicans absent a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment that overrides the district’s structural lean and Walkinshaw’s established local position ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,196End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...James Walkinshaw’s incumbency in the heavily Democratic Virginia 11th district, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, anchors trader consensus at 97% for the Democratic nominee. Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election with 75% of the vote following Gerry Connolly’s death and advanced unopposed after the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary was canceled. The Republican nominee, Arthur Purves, faces minimal fundraising and no primary contest, reflecting the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters see little path for Republicans absent a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment that overrides the district’s structural lean and Walkinshaw’s established local position ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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