Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia's Class 2 seat against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Recent polling averages show Warner leading by roughly 18–25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia's Democratic lean in federal races and Warner's established statewide support. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. The strong frontrunner position reflects the incumbent's structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate contests. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or health-related development could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,871 Vol.
$16,871 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
5%
$16,871 Vol.
$16,871 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$10,129 Vol.
95%
Republican
$6,742 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia's Class 2 seat against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Recent polling averages show Warner leading by roughly 18–25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia's Democratic lean in federal races and Warner's established statewide support. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. The strong frontrunner position reflects the incumbent's structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate contests. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or health-related development could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,871End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia's Class 2 seat against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Recent polling averages show Warner leading by roughly 18–25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia's Democratic lean in federal races and Warner's established statewide support. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. The strong frontrunner position reflects the incumbent's structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate contests. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or health-related development could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,871End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia's Class 2 seat against Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Recent polling averages show Warner leading by roughly 18–25 points among likely voters, consistent with Virginia's Democratic lean in federal races and Warner's established statewide support. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. The strong frontrunner position reflects the incumbent's structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate contests. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or health-related development could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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