Recent polls show Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc projected around 48 seats or fewer in the October 27 Knesset election, short of the 61-seat majority needed for a stable coalition amid vote-splitting from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s party and tensions among far-right allies. The 25th Knesset completed its full term before dissolving in July, leaving the current government in caretaker status until a new one secures a constructive vote of confidence. Historical patterns of extended post-election negotiations in Israel’s proportional system create uncertainty about whether any coalition can form and pass confidence by year-end. Fragmented opposition and Arab party dynamics add further variables that could accelerate or stall government formation depending on turnout, alliances, and threshold outcomes.