Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus around 94-95% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured 98% in the August 11 Democratic primary. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 38 points among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys. The seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, bolstered by Balint’s fundraising edge and nonpartisan ratings classifying the district as safe or solid Democratic. A major scandal, significant health event, or historically unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$39,626 Vol.
$39,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$39,626 Vol.
$39,626 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,650 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$30,976 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus around 94-95% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured 98% in the August 11 Democratic primary. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 38 points among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys. The seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, bolstered by Balint’s fundraising edge and nonpartisan ratings classifying the district as safe or solid Democratic. A major scandal, significant health event, or historically unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$39,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus around 94-95% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured 98% in the August 11 Democratic primary. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 38 points among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys. The seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, bolstered by Balint’s fundraising edge and nonpartisan ratings classifying the district as safe or solid Democratic. A major scandal, significant health event, or historically unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,626End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Becca Balint holds a commanding lead in Vermont’s at-large House race, reflected in trader consensus around 94-95% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured 98% in the August 11 Democratic primary. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows her ahead of Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 38 points among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys. The seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, bolstered by Balint’s fundraising edge and nonpartisan ratings classifying the district as safe or solid Democratic. A major scandal, significant health event, or historically unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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