Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner faces Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy in the November 3 general election for Washington's 5th congressional district after both advanced from the August 4 top-two primary. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and eastern Washington geography underpin its Solid Republican rating from forecasters, consistent with Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points. Conroy's primary performance placed her well behind Baumgartner, while independent Nate Powell's third-place finish did not alter the expected November matchup. Strong incumbent fundraising and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments have reinforced trader consensus around the Republican outcome in this low-uncertainty race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-05 House Election Winner
WA-05 House Election Winner
$49,306 Vol.
$49,306 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
76%
Democratic Party
24%
$49,306 Vol.
$49,306 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,206 Vol.
76%
Democratic Party
$30,100 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner faces Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy in the November 3 general election for Washington's 5th congressional district after both advanced from the August 4 top-two primary. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and eastern Washington geography underpin its Solid Republican rating from forecasters, consistent with Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points. Conroy's primary performance placed her well behind Baumgartner, while independent Nate Powell's third-place finish did not alter the expected November matchup. Strong incumbent fundraising and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments have reinforced trader consensus around the Republican outcome in this low-uncertainty race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$49,306End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner faces Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy in the November 3 general election for Washington's 5th congressional district after both advanced from the August 4 top-two primary. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and eastern Washington geography underpin its Solid Republican rating from forecasters, consistent with Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points. Conroy's primary performance placed her well behind Baumgartner, while independent Nate Powell's third-place finish did not alter the expected November matchup. Strong incumbent fundraising and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments have reinforced trader consensus around the Republican outcome in this low-uncertainty race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,306End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner faces Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy in the November 3 general election for Washington's 5th congressional district after both advanced from the August 4 top-two primary. The district's R+5 partisan voting index and eastern Washington geography underpin its Solid Republican rating from forecasters, consistent with Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin exceeding 20 points. Conroy's primary performance placed her well behind Baumgartner, while independent Nate Powell's third-place finish did not alter the expected November matchup. Strong incumbent fundraising and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments have reinforced trader consensus around the Republican outcome in this low-uncertainty race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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