Recent FOMC projections and communications have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near its current 3.5-3.75% target range through late 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 midpoint upward to 3.8%, reflecting sticky PCE inflation above target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The July meeting held rates steady on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed commitment to the 2% goal without forward guidance. Solid growth, resilient labor conditions, and the approach of midterms have lowered odds of near-term easing or aggressive tightening, concentrating implied probabilities on outcomes clustered around 3.75-4.25%. Analysts broadly anticipate on-hold policy absent sharper inflation reacceleration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0% 41.4%
3.75% 25.8%
4.25% 19.6%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,783,011 Vol.
$6,783,011 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
26%
4.0%
41%
4.25%
20%
≥ 4.5%
4%
4.0% 41.4%
3.75% 25.8%
4.25% 19.6%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,783,011 Vol.
$6,783,011 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$250,225 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$144,038 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$147,116 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,590 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$264,854 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,730 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$173,745 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$61,813 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$489,421 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$66,940 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$203,350 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,866 Vol.
26%
4.0%
$1,370,575 Vol.
41%
4.25%
$430,710 Vol.
20%
≥ 4.5%
$2,409,038 Vol.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and communications have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near its current 3.5-3.75% target range through late 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 midpoint upward to 3.8%, reflecting sticky PCE inflation above target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The July meeting held rates steady on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed commitment to the 2% goal without forward guidance. Solid growth, resilient labor conditions, and the approach of midterms have lowered odds of near-term easing or aggressive tightening, concentrating implied probabilities on outcomes clustered around 3.75-4.25%. Analysts broadly anticipate on-hold policy absent sharper inflation reacceleration.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,783,011End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and communications have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near its current 3.5-3.75% target range through late 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 midpoint upward to 3.8%, reflecting sticky PCE inflation above target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The July meeting held rates steady on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed commitment to the 2% goal without forward guidance. Solid growth, resilient labor conditions, and the approach of midterms have lowered odds of near-term easing or aggressive tightening, concentrating implied probabilities on outcomes clustered around 3.75-4.25%. Analysts broadly anticipate on-hold policy absent sharper inflation reacceleration.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,783,011End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and communications have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near its current 3.5-3.75% target range through late 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 midpoint upward to 3.8%, reflecting sticky PCE inflation above target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions. The July meeting held rates steady on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed commitment to the 2% goal without forward guidance. Solid growth, resilient labor conditions, and the approach of midterms have lowered odds of near-term easing or aggressive tightening, concentrating implied probabilities on outcomes clustered around 3.75-4.25%. Analysts broadly anticipate on-hold policy absent sharper inflation reacceleration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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