Anthropic’s sustained dominance on independent leaderboards, anchored by Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 92.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the top large language model by end of September. Recent July releases delivered state-of-the-art results on SWE-bench Pro, coding agent evaluations, and reasoning benchmarks while adding efficiency gains, and the August 28 automated alignment research paper plus Model Hardware Standard preview reinforced its edge in practical agentic workflows and safety. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Text Arena overall rank on September 30, traders see limited room for reversal absent a major competitive release or benchmark swing in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 3.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$679,298 Vol.
$679,298 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
4%
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 3.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$679,298 Vol.
$679,298 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$86,562 Vol.
93%
OpenAI
$44,071 Vol.
4%
$53,642 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$40,702 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$46,103 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,362 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$36,713 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$42,936 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$30,024 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$28,801 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$33,230 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,033 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$17,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,406 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$22,591 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$18,597 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$12,889 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$21,501 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$34,694 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s sustained dominance on independent leaderboards, anchored by Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 92.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the top large language model by end of September. Recent July releases delivered state-of-the-art results on SWE-bench Pro, coding agent evaluations, and reasoning benchmarks while adding efficiency gains, and the August 28 automated alignment research paper plus Model Hardware Standard preview reinforced its edge in practical agentic workflows and safety. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Text Arena overall rank on September 30, traders see limited room for reversal absent a major competitive release or benchmark swing in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$679,298End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s sustained dominance on independent leaderboards, anchored by Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 92.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the top large language model by end of September. Recent July releases delivered state-of-the-art results on SWE-bench Pro, coding agent evaluations, and reasoning benchmarks while adding efficiency gains, and the August 28 automated alignment research paper plus Model Hardware Standard preview reinforced its edge in practical agentic workflows and safety. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Text Arena overall rank on September 30, traders see limited room for reversal absent a major competitive release or benchmark swing in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$679,298End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s sustained dominance on independent leaderboards, anchored by Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5, drives the 92.5% market-implied odds that it will hold the top large language model by end of September. Recent July releases delivered state-of-the-art results on SWE-bench Pro, coding agent evaluations, and reasoning benchmarks while adding efficiency gains, and the August 28 automated alignment research paper plus Model Hardware Standard preview reinforced its edge in practical agentic workflows and safety. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Text Arena overall rank on September 30, traders see limited room for reversal absent a major competitive release or benchmark swing in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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