Anthropic’s Claude 5 family, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 Opus 5 release, drives the 92.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (83.4) and SWE-bench Verified (96%). These large language models deliver state-of-the-art results in reasoning, coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal tasks, often outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol while offering stronger price-performance and broad availability. Sustained benchmark leadership since mid-2026 has created strong trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution on arena.ai rankings. An unexpected capability jump from rivals via a new model release or evaluation shift remains the main risk that could narrow the gap before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 3.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$679,282 Vol.
$679,282 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
4%
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.6%
Google 3.1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$679,282 Vol.
$679,282 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$86,562 Vol.
93%
OpenAI
$44,071 Vol.
4%
$53,641 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$40,702 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$46,103 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,362 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$36,698 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$42,936 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$30,024 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$28,801 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$33,230 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,033 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$17,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,406 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$22,591 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$18,597 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$12,889 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$21,501 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$34,694 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude 5 family, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 Opus 5 release, drives the 92.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (83.4) and SWE-bench Verified (96%). These large language models deliver state-of-the-art results in reasoning, coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal tasks, often outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol while offering stronger price-performance and broad availability. Sustained benchmark leadership since mid-2026 has created strong trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution on arena.ai rankings. An unexpected capability jump from rivals via a new model release or evaluation shift remains the main risk that could narrow the gap before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$679,282End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude 5 family, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 Opus 5 release, drives the 92.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (83.4) and SWE-bench Verified (96%). These large language models deliver state-of-the-art results in reasoning, coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal tasks, often outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol while offering stronger price-performance and broad availability. Sustained benchmark leadership since mid-2026 has created strong trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution on arena.ai rankings. An unexpected capability jump from rivals via a new model release or evaluation shift remains the main risk that could narrow the gap before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$679,282End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude 5 family, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 Opus 5 release, drives the 92.5% market-implied probability through consistent top rankings on independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 (83.4) and SWE-bench Verified (96%). These large language models deliver state-of-the-art results in reasoning, coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal tasks, often outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol while offering stronger price-performance and broad availability. Sustained benchmark leadership since mid-2026 has created strong trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution on arena.ai rankings. An unexpected capability jump from rivals via a new model release or evaluation shift remains the main risk that could narrow the gap before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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