Mark Pocan’s strong incumbency in Wisconsin’s 2nd district anchors the trader consensus reflected in the 97% Democratic price. The district’s Partisan Voter Index of roughly D+21, centered on heavily Democratic Madison, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democrats in recent cycles, including Pocan’s 2024 reelection. No serious Republican candidate filed by the June deadline, leaving only a nominal general-election opponent after Pocan’s August primary victory. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of polling or fundraising activity that would signal a competitive race. A major unforeseen development, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the nominee, remains the primary theoretical path to shifting probabilities before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-02 House Election Winner
WI-02 House Election Winner
$100,311 Vol.
$100,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$100,311 Vol.
$100,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$60,778 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$39,533 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Pocan’s strong incumbency in Wisconsin’s 2nd district anchors the trader consensus reflected in the 97% Democratic price. The district’s Partisan Voter Index of roughly D+21, centered on heavily Democratic Madison, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democrats in recent cycles, including Pocan’s 2024 reelection. No serious Republican candidate filed by the June deadline, leaving only a nominal general-election opponent after Pocan’s August primary victory. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of polling or fundraising activity that would signal a competitive race. A major unforeseen development, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the nominee, remains the primary theoretical path to shifting probabilities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$100,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Pocan’s strong incumbency in Wisconsin’s 2nd district anchors the trader consensus reflected in the 97% Democratic price. The district’s Partisan Voter Index of roughly D+21, centered on heavily Democratic Madison, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democrats in recent cycles, including Pocan’s 2024 reelection. No serious Republican candidate filed by the June deadline, leaving only a nominal general-election opponent after Pocan’s August primary victory. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of polling or fundraising activity that would signal a competitive race. A major unforeseen development, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the nominee, remains the primary theoretical path to shifting probabilities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$100,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mark Pocan’s strong incumbency in Wisconsin’s 2nd district anchors the trader consensus reflected in the 97% Democratic price. The district’s Partisan Voter Index of roughly D+21, centered on heavily Democratic Madison, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democrats in recent cycles, including Pocan’s 2024 reelection. No serious Republican candidate filed by the June deadline, leaving only a nominal general-election opponent after Pocan’s August primary victory. Independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of polling or fundraising activity that would signal a competitive race. A major unforeseen development, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the nominee, remains the primary theoretical path to shifting probabilities before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions