**Recent polling from late August 2026 shows the AfD leading in Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 state election but falling short of the roughly 42 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 83-seat Landtag.** In the most recent Infratest dimap survey (conducted August 24–25), the AfD stands at 42 percent—up one point from July—while the CDU sits at 22 percent, the Left at 11 percent, the SPD at 8 percent, and the Greens at 6 percent, with the BSW and FDP below the 5 percent threshold. Earlier August polls from INSA and Pollytix placed the AfD between 42 and 43 percent. In Germany’s proportional system, seat allocation depends on which smaller parties clear the hurdle; wasted votes for parties that fall short can boost larger parties’ shares, but current distributions leave the AfD just below or at the edge of a majority. All other parties maintain a firewall against cooperation with the AfD, so the outcome hinges solely on whether the party crosses the seat threshold on its own. With the election only days away, traders appear to view the latest polling averages as indicating that AfD support, while strong, remains insufficient for an outright majority under most realistic scenarios for smaller-party performance.