The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the 2025 Bundestag election, has sustained momentum through repeated reform agreements on pensions, taxes, health insurance, and economic growth measures. The latest demonstration came during the August 2026 cabinet retreat, where Merz, SPD Finance Minister Klingbeil, and CSU Interior Minister Dobrindt presented a united work program for the autumn session. Internal policy frictions and low popularity persist amid economic pressures and September state elections, yet neither partner holds a credible exit option short of risking AfD gains or early polls. Traders price the 85.5% probability of survival past 2027 on this pattern of negotiated continuity, historical resilience of similar coalitions, and the absence of any trigger event sufficient to force dissolution before the next federal term midpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$73,664 Vol.
$73,664 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% chance
$73,664 Vol.
$73,664 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the 2025 Bundestag election, has sustained momentum through repeated reform agreements on pensions, taxes, health insurance, and economic growth measures. The latest demonstration came during the August 2026 cabinet retreat, where Merz, SPD Finance Minister Klingbeil, and CSU Interior Minister Dobrindt presented a united work program for the autumn session. Internal policy frictions and low popularity persist amid economic pressures and September state elections, yet neither partner holds a credible exit option short of risking AfD gains or early polls. Traders price the 85.5% probability of survival past 2027 on this pattern of negotiated continuity, historical resilience of similar coalitions, and the absence of any trigger event sufficient to force dissolution before the next federal term midpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$73,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the 2025 Bundestag election, has sustained momentum through repeated reform agreements on pensions, taxes, health insurance, and economic growth measures. The latest demonstration came during the August 2026 cabinet retreat, where Merz, SPD Finance Minister Klingbeil, and CSU Interior Minister Dobrindt presented a united work program for the autumn session. Internal policy frictions and low popularity persist amid economic pressures and September state elections, yet neither partner holds a credible exit option short of risking AfD gains or early polls. Traders price the 85.5% probability of survival past 2027 on this pattern of negotiated continuity, historical resilience of similar coalitions, and the absence of any trigger event sufficient to force dissolution before the next federal term midpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Volume
$73,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the 2025 Bundestag election, has sustained momentum through repeated reform agreements on pensions, taxes, health insurance, and economic growth measures. The latest demonstration came during the August 2026 cabinet retreat, where Merz, SPD Finance Minister Klingbeil, and CSU Interior Minister Dobrindt presented a united work program for the autumn session. Internal policy frictions and low popularity persist amid economic pressures and September state elections, yet neither partner holds a credible exit option short of risking AfD gains or early polls. Traders price the 85.5% probability of survival past 2027 on this pattern of negotiated continuity, historical resilience of similar coalitions, and the absence of any trigger event sufficient to force dissolution before the next federal term midpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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