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Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of August?
Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Aug 31

Sep 30

$12,616 Vol.

Aug 30, 2026
Polymarket

$12,616 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$2,420 Vol.

1%

↑ $4.75

$446 Vol.

2%

↑ $4.50

$3,170 Vol.

2%

↑ $4.25

$1,924 Vol.

5%

↓ $3.90

$597 Vol.

3%

↓ $3.70

$1,511 Vol.

4%

↓ $3.50

$684 Vol.

1%

↓ $3.25

$515 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.00

$860 Vol.

<1%

↓ $2.50

$489 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**US gasoline prices are trading near $4.09 per gallon nationally as of late August 2026, supported by crude oil benchmarks holding in the $70–$80 per barrel range amid ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks.** Elevated summer driving demand, refinery utilization above 90%, and inventories running below five-year averages have kept retail prices at record levels for the month, with AAA data showing daily averages above $4 every day so far. Strong production and LNG export flows have had limited offsetting impact on pump prices. With only days remaining until the end of August and Labor Day weekend demand ahead, any near-term crude volatility or weather-driven shifts could influence final settlement levels, though the market-implied odds reflect a consensus shaped by persistent supply tightness and macro risk premiums rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$12,616
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".**US gasoline prices are trading near $4.09 per gallon nationally as of late August 2026, supported by crude oil benchmarks holding in the $70–$80 per barrel range amid ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-related supply risks.** Elevated summer driving demand, refinery utilization above 90%, and inventories running below five-year averages have kept retail prices at record levels for the month, with AAA data showing daily averages above $4 every day so far. Strong production and LNG export flows have had limited offsetting impact on pump prices. With only days remaining until the end of August and Labor Day weekend demand ahead, any near-term crude volatility or weather-driven shifts could influence final settlement levels, though the market-implied odds reflect a consensus shaped by persistent supply tightness and macro risk premiums rather than guaranteed outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$12,616
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.25" at 5%, followed by "↓ $3.70" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit __ by end of August?" has generated $12.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of August?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will gas hit __ by end of August?" is "↑ $4.25" at just 5%, with "↓ $3.70" close behind at 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.