U.S. regular gasoline prices, currently averaging near $4.00–$4.10 per gallon amid elevated crude benchmarks around $81 per barrel, reflect ongoing supply constraints from geopolitical tensions including disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refining capacity. These factors have tightened inventories to roughly 7% below seasonal norms while supporting a premium over crude that reached multi-year highs in July. Trader sentiment in the final days of August hinges on whether any daily AAA-reported national average meets or exceeds the contract threshold before month-end, with potential catalysts including the next EIA storage update, weather-driven demand shifts, and any diplomatic progress on energy transit routes. High production levels and fading summer driving season provide some counterbalance, though forward curves price in persistent volatility through Q3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,179 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
↑ $5.00
2%
↑ $4.75
2%
↑ $4.50
4%
↑ $4.25
13%
↓ $3.90
4%
↓ $3.70
3%
↓ $3.50
1%
↓ $3.25
1%
↓ $3.00
2%
↓ $2.50
1%
$10,179 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$2,390 Vol.
2%
↑ $4.75
$366 Vol.
2%
↑ $4.50
$2,289 Vol.
4%
↑ $4.25
$1,604 Vol.
13%
↓ $3.90
$597 Vol.
4%
↓ $3.70
$1,511 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.50
$281 Vol.
1%
↓ $3.25
$348 Vol.
1%
↓ $3.00
$304 Vol.
2%
↓ $2.50
$489 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. regular gasoline prices, currently averaging near $4.00–$4.10 per gallon amid elevated crude benchmarks around $81 per barrel, reflect ongoing supply constraints from geopolitical tensions including disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refining capacity. These factors have tightened inventories to roughly 7% below seasonal norms while supporting a premium over crude that reached multi-year highs in July. Trader sentiment in the final days of August hinges on whether any daily AAA-reported national average meets or exceeds the contract threshold before month-end, with potential catalysts including the next EIA storage update, weather-driven demand shifts, and any diplomatic progress on energy transit routes. High production levels and fading summer driving season provide some counterbalance, though forward curves price in persistent volatility through Q3.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET
Volume
$10,179End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".U.S. regular gasoline prices, currently averaging near $4.00–$4.10 per gallon amid elevated crude benchmarks around $81 per barrel, reflect ongoing supply constraints from geopolitical tensions including disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refining capacity. These factors have tightened inventories to roughly 7% below seasonal norms while supporting a premium over crude that reached multi-year highs in July. Trader sentiment in the final days of August hinges on whether any daily AAA-reported national average meets or exceeds the contract threshold before month-end, with potential catalysts including the next EIA storage update, weather-driven demand shifts, and any diplomatic progress on energy transit routes. High production levels and fading summer driving season provide some counterbalance, though forward curves price in persistent volatility through Q3.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$10,179End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://gasprices.aaa.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. regular gasoline prices, currently averaging near $4.00–$4.10 per gallon amid elevated crude benchmarks around $81 per barrel, reflect ongoing supply constraints from geopolitical tensions including disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian refining capacity. These factors have tightened inventories to roughly 7% below seasonal norms while supporting a premium over crude that reached multi-year highs in July. Trader sentiment in the final days of August hinges on whether any daily AAA-reported national average meets or exceeds the contract threshold before month-end, with potential catalysts including the next EIA storage update, weather-driven demand shifts, and any diplomatic progress on energy transit routes. High production levels and fading summer driving season provide some counterbalance, though forward curves price in persistent volatility through Q3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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