Israeli officials maintain that a major ground offensive remains possible if Hamas fails to complete disarmament under the October 2025 ceasefire framework, with Prime Minister Netanyahu directing the IDF to expand control toward 70 percent of Gaza territory. Recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s talks, collapsed without agreement on sequencing, prompting a surge in Israeli airstrikes and targeted ground operations along the expanding “Yellow Line” in late August 2026. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has reiterated commitments to proactive degradation of Hamas capabilities and rejection of any return to pre-October 2023 conditions. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including attempted crossings and projectile launches, alongside Hamas’s partial reassertion of governance in remaining areas, continue to shape trader assessments of escalation risks before key diplomatic or military deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$752,111 Vol.
Oct 30, 2025
December 31
12%
$752,111 Vol.
December 31
$102,480 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli officials maintain that a major ground offensive remains possible if Hamas fails to complete disarmament under the October 2025 ceasefire framework, with Prime Minister Netanyahu directing the IDF to expand control toward 70 percent of Gaza territory. Recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s talks, collapsed without agreement on sequencing, prompting a surge in Israeli airstrikes and targeted ground operations along the expanding “Yellow Line” in late August 2026. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has reiterated commitments to proactive degradation of Hamas capabilities and rejection of any return to pre-October 2023 conditions. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including attempted crossings and projectile launches, alongside Hamas’s partial reassertion of governance in remaining areas, continue to shape trader assessments of escalation risks before key diplomatic or military deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$752,111End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli officials maintain that a major ground offensive remains possible if Hamas fails to complete disarmament under the October 2025 ceasefire framework, with Prime Minister Netanyahu directing the IDF to expand control toward 70 percent of Gaza territory. Recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s talks, collapsed without agreement on sequencing, prompting a surge in Israeli airstrikes and targeted ground operations along the expanding “Yellow Line” in late August 2026. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has reiterated commitments to proactive degradation of Hamas capabilities and rejection of any return to pre-October 2023 conditions. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including attempted crossings and projectile launches, alongside Hamas’s partial reassertion of governance in remaining areas, continue to shape trader assessments of escalation risks before key diplomatic or military deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$752,111End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli officials maintain that a major ground offensive remains possible if Hamas fails to complete disarmament under the October 2025 ceasefire framework, with Prime Minister Netanyahu directing the IDF to expand control toward 70 percent of Gaza territory. Recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. envoy Jared Kushner’s talks, collapsed without agreement on sequencing, prompting a surge in Israeli airstrikes and targeted ground operations along the expanding “Yellow Line” in late August 2026. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has reiterated commitments to proactive degradation of Hamas capabilities and rejection of any return to pre-October 2023 conditions. Ongoing ceasefire violations, including attempted crossings and projectile launches, alongside Hamas’s partial reassertion of governance in remaining areas, continue to shape trader assessments of escalation risks before key diplomatic or military deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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